How Will Zscaler Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, September 3, 2026. The company has $29 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.2 billion, and it was operationally loss-making with $149 million in operating losses and a net loss of $77 million. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Zscaler’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 35% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 9.8%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -11%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 5/26/2026 | -31.5% | -21.9% | -32.9% |
| 2/26/2026 | -12.2% | -3.2% | -20.4% |
| 11/25/2025 | -13.0% | -16.5% | -21.5% |
| 9/2/2025 | -1.5% | 2.8% | 10.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | 9.8% | 19.8% | 25.0% |
| 3/5/2025 | 2.9% | 0.7% | -2.2% |
| 12/2/2024 | -4.7% | -1.1% | -12.9% |
| 9/3/2024 | -18.7% | -19.3% | -12.2% |
| 5/30/2024 | 8.5% | 14.2% | 26.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | -9.4% | -16.8% | -20.6% |
| 11/27/2023 | 1.0% | 3.3% | 17.3% |
| 9/5/2023 | -2.7% | -1.5% | -4.7% |
| 5/8/2023 | 20.6% | 27.8% | 71.0% |
| 3/2/2023 | -11.1% | -17.7% | -12.9% |
| 12/1/2022 | -10.7% | -17.3% | -23.7% |
| 9/8/2022 | 21.9% | 14.1% | 10.3% |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% |
| 2/24/2022 | -15.8% | -8.1% | -12.6% |
| 11/30/2021 | -8.3% | -14.2% | -6.5% |
| 9/9/2021 | -3.4% | -2.1% | -4.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 12.3% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -10.7% | -15.4% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 27.8% | 71.0% |
| Max Negative | -31.5% | -21.9% | -32.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest correlation here: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the same direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 6.8% | 22.9% | 38.8% |
| 3Y History | 2.0% | 25.7% | 16.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Zscaler stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Zscaler. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ZS Earnings Dates | ZS | PANW | NET |
| 5/26/2026 | -31.5% | N/A* | -23.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | -12.2% | -6.8% | 5.2% |
| 11/25/2025 | -13.0% | -7.4% | 13.8% |
| 9/2/2025 | -1.5% | 3.1% | N/A* |
| 5/29/2025 | 9.8% | -6.8% | 6.5% |
| 3/5/2025 | 2.9% | -0.9% | 17.8% |
| 12/2/2024 | -4.7% | 1.2% | -4.6% |
| 9/3/2024 | -18.7% | 7.2% | N/A* |
| 5/30/2024 | 8.5% | -3.7% | -16.4% |
| 2/29/2024 | -9.4% | -28.4% | 19.5% |
| 11/27/2023 | 1.0% | -5.4% | 13.9% |
| 9/5/2023 | -2.7% | 14.8% | N/A* |
| 5/8/2023 | 20.6% | N/A* | -21.0% |
| 3/2/2023 | -11.1% | 12.5% | 3.3% |
| 12/1/2022 | -10.7% | 7.0% | -18.4% |
| 9/8/2022 | 21.9% | 12.1% | N/A* |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.6% | 9.7% | -15.7% |
| 2/24/2022 | -15.8% | 0.4% | -9.5% |
| 11/30/2021 | -8.3% | 2.0% | -1.9% |
| 9/9/2021 | -3.4% | 18.6% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 16.4% | -3.7% | |
* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter
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