How Will Gilead Sciences Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. The company has $147 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $29 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $11 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.3 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Gilead Sciences’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 5.7%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 1.1% |
| 2/11/2025 | 7.5% | 12.0% | 17.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 6.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.6% | -1.7% | 4.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | -4.2% | -5.4% | -5.2% |
| 11/7/2023 | -3.4% | -7.3% | -3.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 4.2% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | -1.6% | -6.0% | -7.7% |
| 2/2/2023 | 3.8% | 5.1% | -0.3% |
| 10/27/2022 | 12.9% | 13.2% | 21.4% |
| 8/2/2022 | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.6% | -0.3% | 5.3% |
| 2/1/2022 | -3.9% | -7.0% | -9.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | -3.7% | -1.3% | 4.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -2.2% | -0.8% | 2.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| 1/11/2021 | -0.8% | 0.5% | 6.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -2.7% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 12.9% | 13.2% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -7.3% | -9.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 11.8% | -8.8% | -5.8% |
| 3Y History | 30.4% | -28.1% | -59.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Gilead Sciences stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Gilead Sciences. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| GILD Earnings Dates | GILD | BIIB |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.3% | -0.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | 6.8% | -3.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.6% | -3.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 4.2% | -0.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 12.9% | 1.6% |
| 8/2/2022 | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2021 | -3.7% | -0.6% |
| 7/29/2021 | -2.2% | 0.9% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.6% | 2.4% |
| CORRELATION | 11.3% |
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