How Will Fortinet Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $66 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.9 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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Fortinet’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -11%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.5% | -2.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -22.0% | -17.9% | -18.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -8.4% | -3.3% | -1.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | 2.8% | 5.0% | -8.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 10.0% | 12.9% | 16.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 25.3% | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -9.7% | -10.9% | -9.8% |
| 2/6/2024 | 3.8% | 2.8% | 8.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | -12.3% | -13.8% | -9.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | -25.1% | -20.1% | -19.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | 5.6% | 10.3% | 16.5% |
| 2/7/2023 | 10.9% | 13.8% | 11.5% |
| 11/2/2022 | -13.7% | -6.3% | 0.7% |
| 8/3/2022 | -16.3% | -14.3% | -22.8% |
| 5/4/2022 | -1.0% | -9.2% | 3.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | 5.8% | 9.5% | -1.9% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.8% | -0.4% | -13.7% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.7% | 9.4% | 15.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 25.3% | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| Max Negative | -25.1% | -20.1% | -22.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -8.4% | -14.3% | -23.1% |
| 3Y History | 8.1% | -18.0% | -21.9% |
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