Frontdoor Stock To $65?
Frontdoor (FTDR) stock has fallen by 28.8% in less than a month, from $69.38 on 10/23/2025 to $49.38 now. What comes next? As it turns out, we believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, FTDR stock passes basic quality checks. The stock has returned (median) 59% in one year, and 75% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, FTDR provides home service plans covering repairs or replacements of major systems and appliances, along with on-demand services and a technology platform using augmented reality and machine learning.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Frontdoor Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Quiz time: Over the last 5 years, which index do you think the Trefis High Quality Portfolio outperformed — the S&P 500, the S&P 1500 Equal Weighted, or both? The answer might surprise you. See how our advisory framework helps stack the odds in your favor.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 10.2% |
| 3M | 31.3% |
| 6M | 43.8% |
| 12M | 59.3% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
FTDR had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 75% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 306 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -5.6% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | FTDR Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | FTDR | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 59% | 75% | -6% | 306 | ||||
| 3062025 | -30% | -6% | 36% | 70% | -9% | 231 | ||
| 6132022 | -33% | -9% | 51% | 55% | -6% | 358 | ||
| 4022020 | -31% | -25% | 68% | 80% | -5% | 316 | ||
| 11122018 | -48% | -7% | 97% | 141% | -4% | 297 | ||
Frontdoor Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 8.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 6.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 17.0% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 6.6 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 9.4 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.