Is It Too Early To Buy Firefly Aerospace Stock?
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Firefly Aerospace (FLY) stock jumped 36.8% on November 6, 2026, the day the company signed a rocket engine deal with AST SpaceMobile valued at more than $1.3 billion. The three-year agreement covers engine delivery, licensed intellectual property and engineering support for AST SpaceMobile’s new heavy-lift rocket. Even with the gain, the shares sit 64.7% below their May high. Buyers stepping in now are betting that Firefly’s spacecraft work on NASA moon missions will keep lifting revenue, and that the sales guide for the year holds with Alpha rocket launches still to fly. So what are you paying for Firefly at $20.76, and is the growth behind that price still on track?
Firefly Stock Is Cheaper On Sales Than In 2025
Firefly closed on November 6 at 11.7 times its trailing sales, down from 40.1 times on September 30, 2025. The company still loses money, which means its price against earnings or operating cash flow is not meaningful, leaving sales as the appropriate measure.
Firefly’s loss has shrunk relative to revenue. The operating loss over the twelve months to June 2026 equaled 118.0% of revenue, down from 216.5% a year earlier. In dollar terms, however, the loss grew to $339 million from $223 million.
Spacecraft operations provide the growth, and that growth has held up so far. Spacecraft accounted for $108.3 million of the $117.7 million in revenue Firefly reported for the second quarter of 2026, and management said its team was working on five lunar missions in parallel for the first time. Still, a valuation of 11.7 times sales sits well above the S&P 500’s 3.1 for a business that loses more than it sells.
What Third-Quarter Revenue Is Firefly Expected To Report?
Analysts expect a smaller top line for the third quarter. Forecasts call for revenue of about $103 million, trailing the $118 million Firefly reported for the second quarter. During the company’s August 11 call, management said a national security customer requested a hardware order one quarter early, pulling that revenue into the second quarter.
The company’s guidance for the year has held so far. Management reiterated 2026 revenue of $420 million to $450 million and said 95% of the midpoint was already booked. Launch is the smaller business, generating $9.4 million in the second quarter, and management was targeting two more Alpha launches in 2026.
How Has Firefly Stock Moved After Its Reports?
Firefly will report its third-quarter results on November 10, 2026, and the stock has a history of moving sharply in both directions after past reports. Shares fell 18.1% after the September 22, 2025 report and rose 25.3% after the November 12, 2025 report, with both moves measured over the two trading days that followed. The three reports since then produced smaller gains of under 5% each.
Firefly’s reports swing hard both ways. Keep the rest of your money ready for a crash or a rally.
Past reports aside, the sales multiple overlooks the cash Firefly spends. The company ended June with $635 million in cash and short-term investments, compared with a free cash outflow of $326 million over the prior twelve months. If spacecraft growth slows, buyers at today’s price would own that spending with less growth to show for it.
Spacecraft work is lifting revenue so far, and the guidance for the year has held, with Alpha launches still to fly. In Firefly’s November report, watch third-quarter revenue against the roughly $103 million analysts expect, and whether management still holds its $420 million to $450 million guide.
Still Holding Firefly Aerospace After The Drop?
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