FIZZ’s 7.2% Decline in a Day Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is KDP a Better Deal?
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs National Beverage (FIZZ), suggesting you may be better off investing in KDP
- KDP’s quarterly revenue growth was 4.6%, vs. FIZZ’s 0.8%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 4.6%, ahead of FIZZ’s 0.8%.
- KDP leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 21.5% and 3-year average of 21.5%.
FIZZ develops, produces, and markets sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks since 1985, based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. KDP operates globally in coffee systems, packaged beverages, concentrates, and Latin American markets, serving retailers, distributors, restaurants, hotels, office coffee providers, and consumers.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| FIZZ | KDP | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 17.2 | 12.5 | KDP |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 0.8% | 4.6% | KDP |
| Last 12 Months | 0.8% | 4.6% | KDP |
| Last 3 Year Average | 1.8% | 5.9% | KDP |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 19.6% | 21.5% | KDP |
| Last 3 Year Average | 18.0% | 21.5% | KDP |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -18.8% | -15.4% | KDP |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: FIZZ Revenue Comparison | KDP Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: FIZZ Operating Income Comparison | KDP Operating Income Comparison
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell KDP Stock to see if Keurig Dr Pepper’s edge holds up under the hood or if National Beverage still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell FIZZ Stock).
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| FIZZ Return | 77% | 13% | 3% | 7% | -8% | 2% | 122% | <=== | |
| KDP Return | 13% | 17% | -1% | -4% | -1% | -1% | 39% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 9% | 100% | ||
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| FIZZ Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 57% | 51% | ||
| KDP Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 57% | 48% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 57% | 62% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| FIZZ Max Drawdown | -27% | -7% | -15% | -9% | -12% | -9% | -13% | ||
| KDP Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -6% | -20% | -13% | -5% | -13% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 8/25/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read KDP Dip Buyer Analyses and FIZZ Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.