Fair Isaac Stock Hits Key Support – Buying Opportunity?
Fair Isaac (FICO) stock should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($1,683.28 – $1,860.46), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, Fair Isaac stock received buying interest at this level 4 times and subsequently went on to generate 22.8% in average peak returns.
| Peak Return | Days to Peak Return | |
|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2024 | 41.1% | 84 |
| 2/21/2025 | 13.0% | 32 |
| 4/8/2025 | 31.5% | 41 |
| 10/2/2025 | 5.3% | 5 |
Yet, a support zone alone isn’t enough; rebounds are more likely when fundamentals, sentiment, and market conditions line up. How does that look for FICO?
Rebound likely amid strong fundamentals and market growth.
FICO’s robust Q4 FY25 earnings and strong FY26 guidance, driven by its Scores segment and FICO Score 10T adoption, underpin positive momentum. The global credit scoring market benefits from AI integration and digital lending expansion. While high valuation and increased competition, including VantageScore’s expanded use and MBA’s push for single-file reports, present headwinds, FICO’s market dominance, strategic partnerships, and resolution of FICO Score 10T data availability suggest a potential rebound from support. Insider selling and a Zacks downgrade introduce caution.
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How Do FICO Financials Look Right Now?
- Revenue Growth: 15.9% LTM and 13.1% last 3-year average.
- Cash Generation: Nearly 37.1% free cash flow margin and 47.0% operating margin LTM.
- Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for FICO was 9.9%.
- Valuation: FICO stock trades at a PE multiple of 54.9
| FICO | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology | – |
| Industry | Application Software | – |
| PE Ratio | 54.9 | 23.5 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 15.9% | 6.1% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 13.1% | 5.4% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | 9.9% | 0.2% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 47.0% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 44.0% | 18.2% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 37.1% | 13.5% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months | For more details on FICO fundamentals, read Buy or Sell FICO Stock.
And What If The Support Breaks?
FICO isn’t immune to big drops, even with strong fundamentals. It fell nearly 76% in the Global Financial Crisis and about 49% during the Dot-Com Bubble. The Covid sell-off wiped out around 51%, while the 2018 correction and Inflation Shock still dragged it down by roughly 29% and 38%, respectively. So, despite all the positives, this stock can take serious hits when markets get rough. Risk is real, and no name is completely safe.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are in good shape – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read FICO Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
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