FICO Plunges 21%, Should You Consider Buying The Dip?
Fair Isaac stock has fallen by 20.5% in less than a month, from levels of $1926.52 on 6/24/2025 to $1531.09 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Fair Isaac passes basic quality checks. However, it only has one past instance where it dipped sharply (>30% in 30 days), and returned 66% in one year and 89% as peak return subsequently.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.8% |
| 3M | 44.5% |
| 6M | 48.1% |
| 12M | 66.3% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
FICO had 1 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 89% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 280 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -24% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | FICO Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | FICO | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 66% | 89% | -24% | 280 | ||||
| 3122020 | -32% | -24% | 66% | 89% | -24% | 280 | ||
Fair Isaac Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 14.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 10.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 38.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 7.0 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 1.3 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.