FOUR Could Deliver 56% Returns And Outperform FI

We Forecast Higher Stock Return For Shift4 Payments vs. Its Competitor Fiserv
 
Fiserv (FI) is trading at a more expensive P/S valuation vs Shift4 Payments (FOUR) but it makes sense to pay less for Shift4 Payments for higher return.
 

• In summary, we estimate FOUR to return 56% to stock holders over next 3 years.
• This return will come from nearly 66% cumulative revenue growth offset by 6.0% P/S ratio contraction.
• Specifically, expect FOUR revenue to grow on average 18.3% annually over next 3Y; It averaged 34.8% in last 3 years and grew nearly 25.7% last quarter.

P/S = Price to Sales | P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes | Current = as of date: 8/5/2025 | LTM = Last 12 months
 
FI provides payment and financial technology, including point-of-sale acquiring, digital commerce, card transaction processing, and institution ledger management services. FOUR provides integrated omni-channel payment processing and technology solutions, including card acceptance, mobile wallets, and VenueNext’s mobile ordering, POS, and self-service kiosk services.

But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell FOUR Stock to see if Shift4 Payments’s edge holds up under the hood or if Fiserv still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell FI Stock).

Running growth and valuation scenarios based on historical trends is one way to assess stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
 
3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S
 

P/S = Price to Sales | P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes | Current = as of date: 8/5/2025 | LTM = Last 12 months
 
How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years
 
We forecast annual revenue growth of 5.6% for FI and 18.3% for FOUR
 
Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation
 

FI Revenue Comparison | FOUR Revenue Comparison
Recent Quarter Growth = Last quarter (yoy) growth | LTM = Last 12 months
 
Forecast methodology involves:
(a) Different weights to short-term (quarterly) vs long-term (LTM, 3Y Avg) growth (b) Removing exceptional growth periods from consideration
(c) Applying base effect to moderate future growth (d) Applying growth caps and floors based on company size
 
Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense
 
We forecast P/S of 3.9 for FI and 2.0 for FOUR based on below plausible scenarios
 
P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)
 

FI Valuation Ratios Comparison | FOUR Valuation Ratios Comparison
Current = as of 8/5/2025 | Expansion/Contraction = Based on quarterly trend (+/-) | Average = Historical quarterly average
(a) Exceptional spikes excluded (b) Quarterly trend defined by quarterly average % change (c) Expansion/contraction capped at +30%/-30%
 
Are Current P/S Ratios Justified
 
A higher P/S is justified by higher margin, higher revenue growth, better margin expansion, and lower risk
 

 
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read FOUR Dip Buyer Analyses and FI Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.