What’s Happening With Freeport Stock?
In the third quarter of 2025, Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) revenues rose to about US$6.97 billion, up modestly from around US$6.79 billion a year earlier. The company reported net income attributable to common stock of roughly US$674 million — translating to US$0.46 per share — up from US$0.36 in Q3 2024. These gains came despite a drop in production: copper output slipped around 13.2% year-on-year to 912 million pounds, and consolidated copper sales fell to 977 million pounds, down from 1,035 million a year earlier. Gold and molybdenum sales also dropped.
The reason for this dip: a major safety and operational disruption at Freeport’s flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. A “mud-rush” incident there in September 2025 forced the company to suspend operations at that site, sharply reducing production and triggering a force-majeure declaration for Indonesian exports. Yet, even with reduced volumes, Freeport managed to hold onto its bottom line thanks to higher realized commodity prices. Copper averaged US$4.68 per pound in the quarter (up ~9% from a year earlier), and gold fetched ~US$3,539 per ounce — both significantly bolstering revenue per pound of output.
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Strengths & Structural Stability Behind the Numbers
What stands out in Q3 is Freeport’s ability to leverage strong metal prices and maintain disciplined costs. The consolidated unit net cash cost for copper remained at about US$1.40 per pound — nearly unchanged from last year, and below guidance forecasts. Even though cash flows dipped compared to the previous quarter, operating cash flow still clocked in at over US$1.6 billion for Q3. Moreover, Freeport isn’t fully reliant on the Indonesian mine. Its operations in the Americas continue producing copper, gold, and molybdenum. This geographic diversification gives it resilience, softening the blow from the Grasberg disruption.
Finally — and importantly — Freeport entered the quarter with a solid financial base: billions in cash on hand and a manageable debt load. That gives the company flexibility to navigate the current crisis, sustain investments, and bide time until operations resume.
What’s Next: Key Risks — and Room for Optimism
Looking ahead, much depends on how quickly Freeport can recover output at Grasberg. The company has signalled a phased restart plan, but with production losses in Q3, and guidance that 2025 volumes will likely remain below earlier estimates, 2026 could remain a challenging year. On the other hand, if global demand for copper and gold stays firm — fueled by infrastructure projects, renewable-energy buildouts and industrial demand — and commodity prices stay elevated, Freeport’s lower-cost structure and diversified mines could allow it to ride out the disruption without a major hit to cash flow.
Also, Freeport’s non-Indonesian operations and its molybdenum production provide a buffer. If those remain stable, the company has a shot at weathering current headwinds and bouncing back. That said, prolonged shutdowns at Grasberg, further safety or environmental challenges, or a slump in commodity prices remain real risks.
Verdict
Q3 2025 was a mixed bag for Freeport-McMoRan: production setbacks and mine-specific risk weighed on volumes, yet strong metal prices, disciplined costs, and diversified operations helped preserve profitability. Freeport is not simply a short-term recovery story. Its broad global footprint, balanced mix of metals, and healthy financials give it a solid shot at bouncing back — provided key mines like Grasberg can restart safely, and commodity demand remains robust. We value Freeport stock at $46, roughly 7% above the current market price.
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