Why Did Freeport Stock Fall?

September 26th, 2025 by Trefis Team
+3.40%
Upside
44.61
Market
46.13
Trefis
FCX: Freeport-McMoRan logo
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons this week, with shares plunging sharply as investors react to a sudden operational crisis at its flagship Grasberg mine in Indonesia. On September 23, the company declared force majeure after a mud-rush incident halted much of its copper and gold output at the site. Grasberg is among the world’s most important mines, accounting for more than 1.5 billion pounds of annual copper capacity and around 1.5 million ounces of gold in recent years.

The disruption is significant enough that Goldman Sachs slashed its global copper supply forecast, shifting the market outlook from a projected surplus to a deficit for 2025. For Freeport, Grasberg represented nearly a third of total copper sales in 2024, so the suspension immediately created a hole in its near-term production profile. Separately, see –Iron Ore at $105: Balanced, or Poised for a Fall?

But no matter how attractive, investing in a single stock carries high risk. Trefis High Quality Portfolio is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure.  It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

The company followed up with guidance that worsened investor sentiment. Freeport now expects third-quarter 2025 copper sales to be about 4% lower than previously estimated, while gold sales are seen falling 6% short of earlier forecasts. Even a small percentage drop translates into meaningful lost revenue given the scale of Grasberg’s output. Copper had contributed 3.5 billion pounds of sales in 2024, generating billions in revenue at an average realized price of $4.18 per pound. With copper prices climbing above $4.50 per pound this September due to the supply squeeze, every ton of lost production becomes even more painful, both in missed sales and in reduced leverage to rising prices. Also see: Now is not the time to buy FCX stock.

Despite these setbacks, the longer-term picture still looks compelling. Copper remains a cornerstone of the energy transition, with demand expected to rise by 30% over the next decade as electric vehicles, renewable power infrastructure, and data centers require ever-larger volumes of the metal. Freeport, as one of the world’s largest publicly traded copper miners, is well-positioned to capture this growth once operations stabilize.

For now, however, markets are focusing on the near-term pain. FCX shares fell more than 13% intraday on September 24, briefly dipping below $38, compared to highs of $45.74 earlier this month. That swing wiped out billions in market capitalization in just days, underscoring how fragile sentiment can be in the resource sector. Investors are weighing the tension between Freeport’s enviable long-term positioning in copper and the operational and financial uncertainty created by Grasberg’s disruption. Until clarity emerges on how quickly the mine can be brought back online, FCX is likely to remain volatile—caught between the powerful bull case for copper and the harsh reality of lost production.

You could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates