How Will Freeport-McMoRan Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. Consensus earnings are pegged at about $0.44 per share, while revenues are expected to increase by close to 5% compared to the year ago quarter. The increase is expected to be driven by stronger copper prices and stable production, particularly from its Grasberg mine. Additionally, there would be further upside, if U.S. tariffs on imported copper materialize. However, risks remain from copper price volatility and operational uncertainties in Indonesia. Overall, expectations suggest moderate earnings growth and potential for upside if commodity and policy tailwinds align. Separately, can oil help bring peace? See – Trump’s Russia Math, Simplified.

The company has $65 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $25 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $6.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.8 Bil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Freeport-McMoRan’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
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