Ford’s Stock Fell Last Week – What Should You Know?

by Trefis Team
-4.57%
Downside
15.70
Market
14.98
Trefis
F
Ford
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Ford’s stock (NYSE: F) has fallen 0.6% over the last 5 trading days, as the market awaits full year 2020 results on 4th February, 2021. On 27th January Ford announced that Changan Ford will manufacture an All-new all-electric Mustang Mach-E for customers in China. This positive news was offset by the biggest decline in S&P 500 since October 2020 as the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and didn’t promise any further stimulus aid.

The above factors have been responsible for a 0.6% fall in Ford stock in a week. In comparison, the broader S&P 500 fell by 2.3% over the last 5 trading days. Now, is Ford stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 57% chance of a rise in Ford stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last 5 years. See our analysis on Ford Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: F -0.6%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Outperformed market

(42% likelihood event)

  • Ford Motor stock declined 0.6% over a 5-day trading period ending 1/28/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.3%
  • A change of -0.6% or more over 5 trading days is a 42% likelihood event, which has occurred 524 times out of 1256 in the last 5 years

10D: F 10%, vs. S&P500 -1%; Outperformed market

(1% likelihood event)

  • Ford Motor stock rose 10% over the last 10 trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.0%
  • A change of 10% or more over 10 trading days is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 19 times out of 1240 in the last 5 years

21D: F 22%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event)

  • Ford Motor stock rose 22% the last 21 trading days (1 month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.6%
  • A change of 22% or more over 21 trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 35 times out of 1198 in the last 5 years

 

While Ford stock may have risen, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for General Motors vs Comcast.

 

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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