Ford (NYSE:F) stock has gained about 15% over the last week (five trading days) and remains up by about 28% over the last month (21 trading days). The recent rally follows Ford’s stronger than expected Q2 2022 results, which saw the company post earnings of $0.68 cents a share up from around $0.12 a year ago. Revenue also rose 50% year-over-year to $40.2 billion, and came in well ahead of the consensus estimates of about $35 billion. While Ford’s volumes continue to be weighed down by supply chain issues, the company is selling a higher mix of more profitable crossovers and SUVs compared to sedans and cheaper models and this is also helping margins and earnings. Ford also reiterated its full-year operating-profit guidance of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, while noting that it would raise its quarterly dividend to pre-Covid levels of $0.15 per share. This could indicate that Ford is more confident about its future outlook.
However, now that Ford stock has seen a rally of about 28% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a pullback imminent? Going by historical performance, there is only a 41% chance of a rise in Ford stock over the next month. Out of 32 instances in the last ten years that F stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 28% or more, 13 of them resulted in F stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 13 out of 32, or about a 41% chance of a rise in F stock over the coming month, implying a negative near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Ford Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving 15% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 48% of the occasions.
- After moving 24% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 46% of the occasions
- After moving 28% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 41% of the occasions.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Ford stock has fallen 29% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can Ford stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||9%||-13%||84%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||13%||-13%||246%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/30/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016