What’s Happening With Ford Stock?

F: Ford Motor logo
Ford Motor

Ford (NYSE:F) stock has gained about 15% over the last week (five trading days) and remains up by about 28% over the last month (21 trading days). The recent rally follows Ford’s stronger than expected Q2 2022 results, which saw the company post earnings of $0.68 cents a share up from around $0.12 a year ago. Revenue also rose 50% year-over-year to $40.2 billion, and came in well ahead of the consensus estimates of about $35 billion. While Ford’s volumes continue to be weighed down by supply chain issues, the company is selling a higher mix of more profitable crossovers and SUVs compared to sedans and cheaper models and this is also helping margins and earnings. Ford also reiterated its full-year operating-profit guidance of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, while noting that it would raise its quarterly dividend to pre-Covid levels of  $0.15 per share. This could indicate that Ford is more confident about its future outlook.

However, now that Ford stock has seen a rally of about 28% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a pullback imminent? Going by historical performance, there is only a 41% chance of a rise in Ford stock over the next monthOut of 32 instances in the last ten years that F stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 28% or more, 13 of them resulted in F stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 13 out of 32, or about a 41% chance of a rise in F stock over the coming month, implying a negative near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on  Ford Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data

  • After moving 15% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 48% of the occasions.
  • After moving 24% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 46% of the occasions
  • After moving 28% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 41% of the occasions.
Relevant Articles
  1. With F-150 EV Production Cut 50%, What Lies Ahead For Ford Stock?
  2. What To Expect From Ford’s Q3 Earnings?
  3. Will Strong F-Series Sales Power Ford’s Q2 Results?
  4. Can Ford Stock Return To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Highs
  5. Higher Truck Sales Will Drive Ford’s Q1 Results
  6. Ford’s Q4 Results Were Tough, But Things Could Get Better

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Ford stock has fallen 29% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can Ford stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Jul 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 F Return 32% -29% 21%
 S&P 500 Return 9% -13% 84%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 13% -13% 246%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/30/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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