ERO Stock Surges 23% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Analyst Target Hikes
Ero Copper (ERO) – a mining company producing copper, gold, and silver in Brazil – hit a 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to 23%. The company’s market cap has surged by about $736 Mil over the last 5 days and currently stands at $3.9 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 34.4% compared to 1.8% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Multiple Analyst Price Target Hikes
- TD Securities Target Raised to C$45
- Desjardins Target Raised to C$45
- Impact: Sharp Rally Initiation, Breakout to 52-Week Highs
[2] Surging Copper Prices
- Copper Reached All-Time High
- Price Over $13,000 per Tonne
- Impact: Sector-Wide Momentum, Increased Investor Confidence
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in ERO stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive (For details, see Buy or Sell ERO).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for ERO stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | ERO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 5.3% | -0.1% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 23.0% | 0.8% |
| 1M (21D) | 38.2% | 0.9% |
| 3M (63D) | 82.7% | 1.1% |
| YTD 2026 | 34.4% | 1.8% |
| 2025 | 109.9% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -14.6% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 14.8% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has ERO behaved after prior drops? See ERO Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 60 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 87 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 26 | 43 |
| 4D | 25 | 20 |
| 5D | 6 | 14 |
| 6D | 1 | 8 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 2 |
| Total >=3 D | 60 | 87 |
Key Financials for Ero Copper (ERO)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $427.5 Mil | $470.3 Mil |
| Operating Income | $92.5 Mil | $118.6 Mil |
| Net Income | $92.8 Mil | $-68.5 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $163.5 Mil | $177.1 Mil |
| Operating Income | $47.1 Mil | $37.2 Mil |
| Net Income | $70.5 Mil | $36.0 Mil |
While ERO stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.