Ero Copper (ERO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $24.95 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Copper
Ero Copper (ERO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $24.95Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Copper
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% | Key risksERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% |
| Key risksERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ERO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the available information for Ero Copper (ERO) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, a 74.1% stock increase cannot be directly attributed to specific events within this timeframe. While there are positive developments, some reports also indicate an earnings miss and a slight decline in stock price around Q3 2025. It's important to note that some forecasts suggest overall bullish sentiment for 2025 and beyond. Here are some key points highlighting events and outlooks that could generally influence the stock price, though they do not specifically explain a 74.1% increase within the specified period: **1. Continued Ramp-up and Commercial Production at Tucumã Operation.** Ero Copper successfully achieved commercial production at its Tucumã Operation in H1 2025, specifically on July 1, 2025, with production increasing sequentially. This operation is expected to drive transformational growth in copper production and cash flow. **2. Positive Drill Program Results at Furnas Copper-Gold Project.** Ero Copper announced the successful completion of its Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil on July 10, 2025, with significant intercepts, including 105 meters at 1.54% CuEq. This extended mineralization to a depth of 730 meters, indicating expanded resource potential. **3. Strong Gold Production and High Gold Prices.** The Xavantina Operations are heavily committed to doré bar production, benefiting from an unprecedented uptrend in gold prices. Gold production saw a 17% increase quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, with forecasts of gold hitting $4,400 by the end of 2025. **4. Improved Financial Flexibility and Reduced Leverage.** In January 2025, Ero Copper amended its credit facility, increasing commitments from $150 million to $200 million and extending the maturity date from December 2026 to December 2028, enhancing financial flexibility. The company also continued its deleveraging efforts, reducing its net debt leverage ratio in Q3 2025. **5. Positive Production Outlook and Analyst Ratings.** Ero Copper has provided a positive production outlook for 2025, with consolidated copper production expected to increase by approximately 85% to 110% year-on-year. Analysts have maintained a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock, with projections for significant free cash flow improvements in 2025 and beyond.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ERO Return | -62% | 119% | -10% | 15% | -15% | 86% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 82% | 36% | -5% | 16% | 17% | 78% | 464% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ERO Win Rate | 0% | 17% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 57% | 45% | 50% | 45% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ERO Max Drawdown | -65% | 0% | -46% | -15% | -19% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -10% | -37% | -14% | -10% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCX, SCCO, HBM, TECK, TGB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ERO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 464 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 600 days | 120 days |
Compare to SCCO, FCX, HBM, TGB, ERO
In The Past
Ero Copper's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/15/2021. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ERO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ero Copper
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,274 |
| Op Inc LTM | 874 |
| FCF LTM | 180 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 142 |
| CFO LTM | 1,122 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,625 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.6 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 16.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 36.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 55.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 68.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 119.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 35.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 43.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 52.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 56.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 321 | 351 | 424 | 261 | 246 |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 107 | 75 | 66 | 63 | 39 |
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 427 | 426 | 490 | 324 | 285 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 87 | 119 | 206 | 46 | 110 |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 43 | 29 | 29 | 33 | 8 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -36 | -45 | -32 | -27 | -25 |
| Total | 94 | 103 | 203 | 52 | 92 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 963 | 735 | 564 | 413 | 427 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 317 | 91 | 24 | ||
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 120 | 125 | 82 | 58 | 29 |
| Corporate and Other | 111 | 236 | 20 | 27 | 7 |
| Total | 1,512 | 1,188 | 690 | 497 | 463 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |