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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8%
Key risks
ERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8%
4 Key risks
ERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ERO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Based on the available information for Ero Copper (ERO) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, a 74.1% stock increase cannot be directly attributed to specific events within this timeframe. While there are positive developments, some reports also indicate an earnings miss and a slight decline in stock price around Q3 2025. It's important to note that some forecasts suggest overall bullish sentiment for 2025 and beyond. Here are some key points highlighting events and outlooks that could generally influence the stock price, though they do not specifically explain a 74.1% increase within the specified period: **1. Continued Ramp-up and Commercial Production at Tucumã Operation.** Ero Copper successfully achieved commercial production at its Tucumã Operation in H1 2025, specifically on July 1, 2025, with production increasing sequentially. This operation is expected to drive transformational growth in copper production and cash flow. **2. Positive Drill Program Results at Furnas Copper-Gold Project.** Ero Copper announced the successful completion of its Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil on July 10, 2025, with significant intercepts, including 105 meters at 1.54% CuEq. This extended mineralization to a depth of 730 meters, indicating expanded resource potential. **3. Strong Gold Production and High Gold Prices.** The Xavantina Operations are heavily committed to doré bar production, benefiting from an unprecedented uptrend in gold prices. Gold production saw a 17% increase quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, with forecasts of gold hitting $4,400 by the end of 2025. **4. Improved Financial Flexibility and Reduced Leverage.** In January 2025, Ero Copper amended its credit facility, increasing commitments from $150 million to $200 million and extending the maturity date from December 2026 to December 2028, enhancing financial flexibility. The company also continued its deleveraging efforts, reducing its net debt leverage ratio in Q3 2025. **5. Positive Production Outlook and Analyst Ratings.** Ero Copper has provided a positive production outlook for 2025, with consolidated copper production expected to increase by approximately 85% to 110% year-on-year. Analysts have maintained a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock, with projections for significant free cash flow improvements in 2025 and beyond.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ERO Return-62%119%-10%15%-15%86%37%
Peers Return82%36%-5%16%17%78%464%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ERO Win Rate0%17%58%50%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate67%57%45%50%45%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ERO Max Drawdown-65%0%-46%-15%-19%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-10%-37%-14%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCX, SCCO, HBM, TECK, TGB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEROS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven372 days464 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven600 days120 days

Compare to SCCO, FCX, HBM, TGB, ERO


In The Past

Ero Copper's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/15/2021. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ero Copper (ERO)

Better Bets than Ero Copper (ERO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ERO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ero Copper

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
Mkt Price24.9647.82141.4518.9944.255.1834.61
Mkt Cap2.668.7116.47.521.61.314.6
Rev LTM58826,00212,3352,06310,4845976,274
Op Inc LTM1786,9346,1995051,24356874
FCF LTM431,6253,480317-32842180
FCF 3Y Avg-1611,4193,035229-89456142
CFO LTM3276,3534,6187361,5081921,122
CFO 3Y Avg2036,1424,1125762,6751671,625

Growth & Margins

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
Rev Chg LTM26.7%1.4%12.7%1.2%29.1%0.5%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.5%4.1%7.1%12.0%-12.0%15.4%8.8%
Rev Chg Q41.9%2.7%15.2%-28.6%18.4%11.8%13.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.7%0.7%3.8%-6.3%5.3%3.2%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM30.3%26.7%50.3%24.5%11.9%9.3%25.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.8%27.3%47.3%19.3%13.2%15.9%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.3%-0.1%0.8%-2.8%0.5%1.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM55.6%24.4%37.4%35.7%14.4%32.1%33.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg39.7%24.7%36.6%30.5%26.0%29.3%29.9%
FCF/Rev LTM7.2%6.2%28.2%15.4%-3.1%7.0%7.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-37.1%5.6%27.0%11.5%-7.9%9.3%7.5%

Valuation

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
Mkt Cap2.668.7116.47.521.61.314.6
P/S3.62.28.13.62.02.22.9
P/EBIT11.57.915.79.211.6-11.5
P/E15.227.226.116.317.1-24.016.7
P/CFO6.48.921.610.214.27.09.5
Total Yield6.6%5.2%6.1%6.2%7.0%-4.2%6.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%2.3%0.1%1.2%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.7%2.3%3.8%5.6%-3.9%-2.3%
D/E0.30.20.10.10.4-0.2
Net D/E0.30.10.00.10.2-0.1

Returns

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
1M Rtn16.1%22.6%11.3%23.9%9.8%15.9%16.0%
3M Rtn49.4%6.4%33.2%40.5%11.9%41.5%36.8%
6M Rtn60.2%16.9%50.7%95.5%16.3%72.7%55.5%
12M Rtn86.3%19.5%50.6%127.6%6.1%156.4%68.5%
3Y Rtn74.1%29.7%165.3%280.9%23.9%301.6%119.7%
1M Excs Rtn15.4%21.9%10.6%23.1%9.1%15.1%15.3%
3M Excs Rtn47.3%5.5%31.4%40.3%11.2%40.2%35.8%
6M Excs Rtn47.8%4.5%38.3%83.2%3.9%60.3%43.1%
12M Excs Rtn71.2%5.7%34.7%108.6%-9.7%138.0%52.9%
3Y Excs Rtn19.1%-40.5%93.8%198.6%-42.3%252.7%56.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Caraiba (Brazil)321351424261246
Xavantina (Brazil)10775666339
Corporate and Other00   
Tucuma (Brazil)00   
Total427426490324285


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Caraiba (Brazil)8711920646110
Xavantina (Brazil)432929338
Tucuma (Brazil)00   
Corporate and Other-36-45-32-27-25
Total941032035292


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Caraiba (Brazil)963735564413427
Tucuma (Brazil)3179124  
Xavantina (Brazil)120125825829
Corporate and Other11123620277
Total1,5121,188690497463


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,342,669
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-19.8%
Average Daily Volume994,745
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.36
Basic Shares Quantity103,621,631
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110420256-K 9/30/2025
630202573120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550520256-K 3/31/2025
12312024306202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110520246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450720246-K 3/31/2024
12312023307202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202350820236-K 3/31/2023
12312022308202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110120226-K 9/30/2022
630202280220226-K 6/30/2022
331202250920226-K 3/31/2022
12312021311202240-F 12/31/2021