Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Key risks
ERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
4 Key risks
ERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ERO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Ero Copper's stock movement for the period of interest: 1. The Tucumã Project commenced commercial production, marking a significant growth milestone. The Tucumã Operation successfully produced its first saleable concentrate in July 2024 and subsequently began commercial production on July 1, 2025. This project is expected to significantly increase copper output, with production projected to rise from 17,000-25,000 tonnes in the second half of 2024 to 53,000-58,000 tonnes in 2025, its first full year of operation.

2. Optimistic 2025 production guidance projected substantial copper output growth. In February 2025, Ero Copper announced an outlook for 2025, forecasting a year-on-year increase in consolidated copper production of approximately 85% to 110%, reaching a range of 75,000 to 85,000 tonnes in concentrate. This robust guidance signaled strong anticipated operational growth and increased revenue potential to investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ERO Return-62%119%-10%15%-15%89%40%
Peers Return82%36%-5%16%17%80%471%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ERO Win Rate0%17%58%50%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate67%57%45%50%45%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ERO Max Drawdown-65%0%-46%-15%-19%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-10%-37%-14%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCX, SCCO, HBM, TECK, TGB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEROS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven372 days464 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven600 days120 days

Compare to SCCO, FCX, HBM, TGB, ERO


In The Past

Ero Copper's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/15/2021. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ero Copper (ERO)

Better Bets than Ero Copper (ERO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ERO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.6%7.6%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%0.2%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
47.0%47.0%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.2%24.2%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.6%7.6%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%0.2%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
47.0%47.0%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.2%24.2%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ero Copper

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
Mkt Price26.1949.15144.0019.2744.745.5035.47
Mkt Cap2.770.6118.57.621.91.714.7
Rev LTM58826,00212,3352,06310,4845976,274
Op Inc LTM1786,9346,1995051,24356874
FCF LTM431,6253,480317-32842180
FCF 3Y Avg-1611,4193,035229-89456142
CFO LTM3276,3534,6187361,5081921,122
CFO 3Y Avg2036,1424,1125762,6751671,625

Growth & Margins

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
Rev Chg LTM26.7%1.4%12.7%1.2%29.1%0.5%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.5%4.1%7.1%12.0%-12.0%15.4%8.8%
Rev Chg Q41.9%2.7%15.2%-28.6%18.4%11.8%13.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.7%0.7%3.8%-6.3%5.3%3.2%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM30.3%26.7%50.3%24.5%11.9%9.3%25.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.8%27.3%47.3%19.3%13.2%15.9%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.3%-0.1%0.8%-2.8%0.5%1.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM55.6%24.4%37.4%35.7%14.4%32.1%33.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg39.7%24.7%36.6%30.5%26.0%29.3%29.9%
FCF/Rev LTM7.2%6.2%28.2%15.4%-3.1%7.0%7.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-37.1%5.6%27.0%11.5%-7.9%9.3%7.5%

Valuation

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
Mkt Cap2.770.6118.57.621.91.714.7
P/S4.62.79.63.72.12.93.3
P/EBIT14.89.818.69.311.84,597.713.3
P/E19.734.131.016.517.4-31.318.5
P/CFO8.311.125.710.414.59.110.7
Total Yield5.1%4.2%5.2%6.1%6.9%-3.2%5.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%1.9%0.1%1.1%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.7%2.3%3.8%5.6%-3.9%6.5%3.0%
D/E0.20.10.10.10.40.50.2
Net D/E0.20.10.00.10.20.40.1

Returns

EROFCXSCCOHBMTECKTGBMedian
NameEro Copp.Freeport.Southern.Hudbay M.Teck Res.Taseko M. 
1M Rtn25.1%24.0%20.0%32.2%17.4%27.9%24.5%
3M Rtn54.3%9.8%31.8%38.8%14.3%46.3%35.3%
6M Rtn71.9%23.0%56.4%101.1%20.1%96.4%64.1%
12M Rtn97.7%28.4%59.5%134.3%10.3%177.8%78.6%
3Y Rtn91.7%33.0%162.0%271.0%21.1%264.2%126.9%
1M Excs Rtn16.4%16.3%12.0%21.6%9.1%20.1%16.3%
3M Excs Rtn48.8%7.1%28.0%33.5%13.7%43.0%30.7%
6M Excs Rtn52.3%7.4%41.0%85.8%4.3%77.5%46.6%
12M Excs Rtn82.5%9.9%40.4%118.0%-5.6%159.3%61.4%
3Y Excs Rtn16.5%-41.4%92.3%196.4%-46.9%255.3%54.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Caraiba (Brazil)321351424261246
Xavantina (Brazil)10775666339
Corporate and Other00   
Tucuma (Brazil)00   
Total427426490324285


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Caraiba (Brazil)8711920646110
Xavantina (Brazil)432929338
Tucuma (Brazil)00   
Corporate and Other-36-45-32-27-25
Total941032035292


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Caraiba (Brazil)963735564413427
Tucuma (Brazil)3179124  
Xavantina (Brazil)120125825829
Corporate and Other11123620277
Total1,5121,188690497463


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,342,669
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-19.8%
Average Daily Volume994,745
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.36
Basic Shares Quantity103,621,631
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110420256-K 9/30/2025
630202573120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550520256-K 3/31/2025
12312024306202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110520246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450720246-K 3/31/2024
12312023307202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202350820236-K 3/31/2023
12312022308202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110120226-K 9/30/2022
630202280220226-K 6/30/2022
331202250920226-K 3/31/2022
12312021311202240-F 12/31/2021