Ero Copper (ERO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $25.9 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Copper
Ero Copper (ERO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $25.9Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Copper
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ERO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
As an AI, I cannot predict future stock movements or confirm a specific percentage change for a future period. The provided dates (8/31/2025 to December 4, 2025) are in the future from my current knowledge cut-off, and information about a 75.8% stock movement during that time is not available.
However, based on recent historical information and analyst expectations, several factors commonly influence Ero Copper's stock performance.
1. Tucumã Operation Reaching Commercial Production: Ero Copper's Tucumã Operation achieved commercial production effective July 1, 2025. This new mine is expected to significantly increase copper output, with production from Tucumã aiming to reach an annual production of 50,000 tonnes of copper. The ramp-up of this new mine, leading to a projected doubling of copper production in 2025, is a major driver for the company's valuation and investor sentiment.
2. Strong Operational and Financial Results (Historical): Ero Copper has reported strong operational and financial results, including record consolidated copper production of 15,513 tonnes and net income of $70.5 million in Q2 2025. Similarly, Q4 and full-year 2023 results showed strong copper and record gold production, reflecting successful execution of growth initiatives like the NX60 initiative and Caraíba mill expansion. These positive operational metrics generally contribute to investor confidence and stock performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ERO Return | -62% | 119% | -10% | 15% | -15% | 86% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 68% | 48% | -14% | 17% | 14% | 84% | 422% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ERO Win Rate | 0% | 17% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 48% | 43% | 48% | 47% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ERO Max Drawdown | -65% | 0% | -46% | -15% | -19% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -10% | -45% | -15% | -12% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCCO, FCX, HBM, TGB, ERO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ERO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 464 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 600 days | 120 days |
Compare to SCCO, FCX, HBM, TGB, ERO
In The Past
Ero Copper's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/15/2021. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ERO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ero Copper
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | 592 |
| FCF LTM | 360 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 255 |
| CFO LTM | 773 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 596 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 15.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 39.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 58.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 64.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 150.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 34.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 43.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 52.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 96.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 321 | 351 | 424 | 261 | 246 |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 107 | 75 | 66 | 63 | 39 |
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 427 | 426 | 490 | 324 | 285 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 87 | 119 | 206 | 46 | 110 |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 43 | 29 | 29 | 33 | 8 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -36 | -45 | -32 | -27 | -25 |
| Total | 94 | 103 | 203 | 52 | 92 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 963 | 735 | 564 | 413 | 427 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 317 | 91 | 24 | ||
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 120 | 125 | 82 | 58 | 29 |
| Corporate and Other | 111 | 236 | 20 | 27 | 7 |
| Total | 1,512 | 1,188 | 690 | 497 | 463 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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