Ero Copper (ERO)
Market Price (9/6/2026): $34.89 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Copper
Ero Copper (ERO)
Market Price (9/6/2026): $34.89Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Copper
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 95% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.7% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133% Key risksERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 95% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.7% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133% |
| Key risksERO key risks include [1] geopolitical and country-specific risks from its heavy operational concentration in Brazil and [2] project execution challenges with the ramp-up of its Tucumã operation. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Ero Copper (ERO) stock has gained about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance: Ero Copper reported robust operating and financial results for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.83, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and reported revenue of $284.3 million, above the $277.64 million forecast. Additionally, cash flow from operations significantly increased by approximately 49% quarter-on-quarter to $137.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 15% quarter-on-quarter to $144.0 million. This strong financial execution led to a reduction in net debt by $38.0 million to $452.7 million, improving the net debt leverage ratio to 0.8x.
2. Favorable Copper and Gold Production and Operational Efficiency: The company demonstrated strong operational execution across its portfolio during fiscal Q2 2026. Consolidated copper production totaled 17,315 tonnes in concentrate, while gold from the Xavantina Operations increased by 170% quarter-on-quarter to 20,553 ounces. Ero Copper's "OneEro" efficiency program contributed to these gains, delivering approximately $10 million to $15 million in annualized supply contract savings and leading to improved smelting and refining terms expected to save over $20 million in 2026. The company also benefited from its foreign exchange hedge program, which generated $12.7 million in realized gains in fiscal Q2 2026.
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Ero Copper (ERO) stock has gained about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance: Ero Copper reported robust operating and financial results for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.83, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and reported revenue of $284.3 million, above the $277.64 million forecast. Additionally, cash flow from operations significantly increased by approximately 49% quarter-on-quarter to $137.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 15% quarter-on-quarter to $144.0 million. This strong financial execution led to a reduction in net debt by $38.0 million to $452.7 million, improving the net debt leverage ratio to 0.8x.
2. Favorable Copper and Gold Production and Operational Efficiency: The company demonstrated strong operational execution across its portfolio during fiscal Q2 2026. Consolidated copper production totaled 17,315 tonnes in concentrate, while gold from the Xavantina Operations increased by 170% quarter-on-quarter to 20,553 ounces. Ero Copper's "OneEro" efficiency program contributed to these gains, delivering approximately $10 million to $15 million in annualized supply contract savings and leading to improved smelting and refining terms expected to save over $20 million in 2026. The company also benefited from its foreign exchange hedge program, which generated $12.7 million in realized gains in fiscal Q2 2026.
3. Positive Commodity Price Tailwinds: The period was characterized by a favorable trend in copper prices. Copper prices remained firm in fiscal Q2 2026 due to tight mine supply and stronger physical buying, and COMEX copper futures reached a new record high of $6.8795 per pound in August 2026, after trading around $6.2905 per pound in early June 2026. This increase in copper prices, a core commodity for Ero Copper, provided significant tailwinds for the company's revenue and profitability.
4. Reaffirmed Full-Year Production Guidance and Analyst Confidence: Ero Copper maintained its full-year 2026 consolidated copper production guidance at 67,500–77,500 tonnes and consolidated copper C1 cash costs at $2.15–$2.35 per pound, signaling confidence in its operational outlook despite an increase in capital expenditure guidance. This steady guidance, coupled with strong Q2 results, led to positive sentiment from analysts. Several analysts either upgraded their ratings or increased their price targets for Ero Copper, with an average price target of C$47.63, reflecting optimism about the company's future growth prospects, particularly with the Furnas Copper-Gold Project progressing towards a pre-feasibility study in 2027.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.7% change in ERO stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.44 | 34.90 | 14.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 924 | 1,045 | 13.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.6% | 29.8% | -5.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.9 | 11.7 | 7.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 104 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ERO | 14.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 57.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.5% | 46.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.1% change in ERO stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.18 | 34.90 | 2.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 588 | 1,045 | 77.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.4% | 29.8% | 27.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.7 | 11.7 | -54.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 104 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ERO | 2.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 56.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | -1.4% | 56.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 143.4% change in ERO stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 94.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.34 | 34.90 | 143.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 536 | 1,045 | 94.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.6% | 29.8% | 11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 11.7 | 12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 104 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 143.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ERO | 143.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 48.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.3% | 51.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.8% change in ERO stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 155.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.68 | 34.90 | 68.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 408 | 1,045 | 155.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 29.8% | 54.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 11.7 | -51.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 104 | -11.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ERO | 68.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 44.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 33.5% | 52.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ERO Return | 119% | -10% | 15% | -15% | 110% | 25% | 406% |
| Peers Return | 36% | -5% | 16% | 17% | 91% | 43% | 377% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ERO Win Rate | 17% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 45% | 50% | 45% | 67% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ERO Max Drawdown | -36% | -49% | -52% | -46% | -33% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -53% | -31% | -31% | -32% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FCX, SCCO, HBM, TECK, TGB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ERO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 454 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Ero Copper's stock fell -28.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ERO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 454 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Ero Copper's stock fell -28.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Ero Copper (ERO)
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) is a Vancouver, Canada-headquartered mining company primarily engaged in the production, exploration, and development of various mining projects exclusively within Brazil. The company systematically operates to discover, extract, and process valuable mineral resources across its Brazilian properties.
The company's main products are a portfolio of essential metals, specifically copper, gold, and silver. Ero Copper's operations are anchored by its principal asset, the Vale do Curaçá property, located in Brazil's northeastern Bahia State. Complementing this, the company also holds significant interests in the Boa Esperança project in Pará and the NX gold mine situated in Mato Grosso, further solidifying its production capabilities for these key commodities.
As a producer of base and precious metals, Ero Copper serves global industrial markets that rely on copper for applications in electronics, construction, and infrastructure, as well as the broader commodity and investment markets for gold and silver. Its business is centered on supplying these fundamental raw materials to meet worldwide demand.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Ero Copper:
- Think of it as a regionally focused Freeport-McMoRan, extracting copper, gold, and silver in Brazil.
- Imagine a Newmont or Barrick Gold, but also significantly producing copper, with all its projects centered in Brazil.
- A smaller, Brazil-focused version of a diversified mining giant like Rio Tinto, specializing in copper and gold.
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- Copper: A base metal produced from its mining operations, primarily from the Vale do Curaçá property and Boa Esperança project.
- Gold: A precious metal extracted and produced, mainly from its NX gold mine.
- Silver: A precious metal also explored for and produced alongside its other mining activities.
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Ero Copper (ERO) primarily sells its products to other companies, not directly to individuals. As a producer of raw materials like copper concentrate and gold dore, its major customers are typically industrial entities involved in processing and trading these commodities. The company does not publicly disclose the specific names of its individual customer companies, which is common practice for commodity producers.
However, the categories of companies that would purchase Ero Copper's products include:
- Copper Smelters and Refiners: These industrial companies purchase copper concentrate to process it into refined copper metal, which is then used in various industries.
- Gold Refiners: These companies buy gold dore (a semi-pure alloy of gold and silver) to refine it into pure gold, often for use in bullion, jewelry, or electronics.
- International Commodity Trading Houses: These firms specialize in the global trade of raw materials, purchasing large volumes of concentrates and dore from producers like Ero Copper and then selling them to smelters, refiners, and other industrial end-users, often managing logistics and financing.
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Makko DeFilippo, President and Chief Executive Officer
Makko DeFilippo was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Ero Copper, effective January 1, 2025. He joined the company in January 2017 as Vice President, Corporate Development, playing a crucial role in supporting its initial public offering in October 2017. He was promoted to President in January 2021 and took on the additional role of Chief Operating Officer in March 2023. Mr. DeFilippo has been instrumental in several strategic initiatives, including transforming the Xavantina Operations into a high-margin asset, leading a $110 million streaming transaction with Royal Gold Inc., and establishing a partnership with Vale Base Metals for the Furnas Copper-Gold Project earn-in agreement.
Wayne Drier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Wayne Drier serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Ero Copper. He brings over 20 years of corporate finance and capital markets experience within the global mining sector. His previous roles include Head of Business & Corporate Development at Asanko Gold Inc., Vice President-Strategy & Development at Coalspur Mines Pty Ltd., Head-Business Development at Norilsk Nickel Africa Pty Ltd., and Director & Vice President-Commercial at BHP Billiton Ltd. Mr. Drier has also served on the board of Mantra Resources Pty Ltd.
David Strang, Executive Chairman of the Board
David Strang co-founded Ero Copper in May 2016 and served as its President and Chief Executive Officer and a director since May 16, 2016, before transitioning to Executive Chairman of the Board, effective January 1, 2025. Mr. Strang has a history of leading successful mining ventures; he was a director, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Lumina Copper Corp. from August 2008 until its sale to First Quantum Minerals Limited in August 2014. He also held similar leadership roles at Lumina Royalty Corp., which was sold to Franco Nevada Corporation in 2011, and Global Copper Corp. Prior to co-founding Ero Copper, he formed Ero Resource Partners LLC in February 2014 with Christopher Noel Dunn.
Gelson Batista, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Gelson Batista was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, succeeding Makko DeFilippo in this role effective January 1, 2025. He joined Ero Copper in September 2024 as Senior Vice President, Operations, bringing over 25 years of extensive international mining experience. Throughout his career, Mr. Batista has held various technical, operational, and senior leadership positions in mining operations and development projects globally, including roles at ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto.
Deepk Hundal, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Deepk Hundal is the Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Ero Copper. He has served as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary since June 2017.
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Here are the key risks to Ero Copper (symbol: ERO):
- Commodity Price Volatility: As a producer of copper and gold, Ero Copper's financial performance is highly dependent on the fluctuating market prices of these commodities. The company is a "price-taker," meaning it does not control the selling prices of its products, making it vulnerable to downturns in global copper and gold markets.
- Operational and Execution Risks: Ero Copper faces challenges in consistently meeting production targets and controlling operating costs. This includes risks related to maintaining desired ore grades and recoveries at its mines, such as the Caraíba operation, and addressing specific operational issues like power quality at the Tucumã mine, which can lead to weaker-than-anticipated production volumes and higher costs.
- Jurisdictional and Political Risks in Brazil: Operating solely in Brazil exposes Ero Copper to potential political instability, changes in mining regulations, and shifts in governmental policies. Maintaining strong relations with the host country and navigating its legal and regulatory framework are crucial for uninterrupted operations.
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Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) operates in the mining sector, with its primary products being copper, gold, and silver. The addressable markets for these products, both globally and in Brazil where the company has significant operations, are substantial.
Copper
- The global copper market size was estimated at USD 241.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 339.95 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global market at USD 261.93 billion in 2025, growing to USD 466.67 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 6.63%.
- In Brazil, the copper market generated a revenue of USD 1,902.9 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2,582.3 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2025 to 2030. Another report indicates the Brazil copper market was valued at USD 11.92 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 17.59 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 5.09%.
Gold
- The global gold market size was valued at USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030, with a CAGR of 6.51% during the forecast period of 2025-2030. In terms of volume, the global gold market is expected to grow from 4,890.0 tons in 2025 to 7,424.4 tons by 2034, at a CAGR of 4.70%.
- Brazil's gold mining market was estimated at USD 7.54 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 11.0 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.4% during the forecast period of 2025-2035. The market is projected to reach USD 10 billion by 2025.
Silver
- Globally, the silver market size was valued at USD 87.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 95.20 billion in 2025 to USD 202.07 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.86% during the forecast period. Other data shows the global silver market size was valued at USD 23.51 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 36.51 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 4.50%.
- Brazil is a producer of silver, with an output of 103 metric tons in 2023, an increase from 76 metric tons in 2022. Brazil accounted for 0.52% of global silver production in 2023. Silver is also noted as the most lucrative metal segment, registering the fastest growth in the Brazil precious metal market during the forecast period of 2025-2030.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Ero Copper (ERO) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Copper Production: Ero Copper anticipates a significant increase in consolidated copper production from its Caraíba and Tucumã operations. The company's 2026 guidance projects 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes of copper, representing a potential increase of up to 20% compared to 2025 production. This growth is expected to be driven by sustained plant throughput and planned upgrades at both operations, with production weighted towards the second half of 2026.
- Expanded Gold Production and Concentrate Sales: The Xavantina Operations are expected to contribute to revenue growth through increased gold production and continued gold concentrate sales. Annual gold production is projected to rise from an estimated 40,000-50,000 ounces in 2026 to between 50,000-60,000 ounces in 2027 and 2028. This increase is attributed to higher mine production and improved mill throughput, supported by the transition to mechanized mining. Gold concentrate sales, which commenced in Q4 2025, are anticipated to continue through mid-2027.
- Advancement of the Furnas Copper-Gold Project: The progression of the Furnas Copper-Gold Project represents a significant long-term growth driver. Ero Copper is advancing this project through an earn-in agreement to acquire a 60% interest. A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Furnas highlights its potential as a large-scale, 24-year mine, capable of producing over 1.2 million tonnes of copper, 2 million ounces of gold, and 9 million ounces of silver. While its full impact on revenue will materialize beyond the immediate 2-3 year horizon, its advancement through exploration and engineering in the near term is crucial for extending Ero's future growth runway.
- Favorable Commodity Prices: Stronger copper and gold prices have demonstrably contributed to Ero Copper's record quarterly revenue in Q4 2025. Sustained or rising prices for these key commodities, which are the company's primary products, are expected to remain a crucial external driver for future revenue growth.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025)
Share Repurchases
- Ero Copper initiated a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) in March 2023, authorizing the repurchase of up to 4,500,000 common shares, representing approximately 4.98% of its issued and outstanding common shares at the time. The NCIB commenced on March 15, 2023, and was set to expire on March 14, 2024.
- Under the 2023 NCIB, the company repurchased 3,197,300 common shares at a weighted average price of C$18.10 per share for a total cost of C$57.9 million (approximately US$42.5 million) by December 31, 2023.
- Ero Copper announced a renewal of its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) in March 2024, authorizing the repurchase of up to 5,000,000 common shares, representing approximately 5.0% of its issued and outstanding common shares. This NCIB commenced on March 15, 2024, and is scheduled to terminate on March 14, 2025.
Share Issuance
- The number of basic common shares outstanding increased from 103,345,064 at the end of 2024 to 103,961,272 at the end of 2025.
Inbound Investments
- Jennison Associates LLC significantly expanded its holdings in Ero Copper by acquiring an additional 237,345 shares at $22.27 per share on September 30, 2024, increasing its total stake to 5,710,827 shares.
- Citigroup Inc. grew its stake in Ero Copper by 2,198.1% in the third quarter of 2025, acquiring 84,868 additional shares to own a total of 88,729 shares valued at approximately $1,798,000.
- FIL LTD added 4,966,427 shares to its portfolio in Q4 2025, representing a 74.1% increase, with an estimated value of $140,500,219.
Outbound Investments
- Ero Copper is advancing the Furnas Copper-Gold Project through a definitive earn-in agreement with Vale Base Metals to acquire a 60% interest in the project.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $273.0 million, compared to $324.9 million in 2024.
- The company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance is projected to be between $275 million and $320 million.
- A significant focus of capital expenditures includes supporting growth at the Xavantina Operations and the construction of a new shaft at the Pilar Mine. Additionally, initial capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 billion are anticipated for the Furnas copper-gold project.
Peer Outperformance in Copper
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ← | 7 | 100.1% | 81.5% | 291.2% | COPR 1037% · HBM 338% · TGB 338% |
| Silver | 6 | 142.0% | 363.5% | 153.0% | AYA 257% · HL 230% · SVM 184% |
| Gold | 34 | 37.0% | 210.7% | 147.9% | IAG 753% · CNL 596% · OGC 452% |
| Steel | 13 | 28.0% | 58.7% | 146.6% | AMR 427% · HCC 369% · NWPX 318% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 111.7% | 145.6% | 60.5% | CENX 268% · KALU 61% · AA 11% |
| Construction Materials | 7 | -18.1% | 26.0% | 41.7% | USLM 306% · CRH 90% · VMC 52% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 24 | -1.5% | -10.5% | 21.2% | ATLX 237757% · USAR 58994% · SGML 924% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | -6.7% | 4.8% | 0.7% | KRT 166% · MYE 64% · GEF 46% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 8.5% | 14.7% | -7.7% | PKG 80% · CCK 9% · SON -5% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 9.4% | -0.7% | -15.4% | ODC 463% · NEU 184% · CMT 75% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 12 | 19.0% | -12.5% | -27.4% | HWKN 268% · LXU 77% · MEOH 68% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | 1.4% | -28.4% | -30.0% | CBT 72% · ASH -14% · CC -46% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | 42.0% | 177.8% | -31.9% | ASM 592% · PPTA 388% · MTA 31% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -4.8% | -0.3% | -32.1% | CF 226% · CTVA 107% · NTR 55% |
| Paper Products | 3 | -19.9% | -52.0% | -96.3% | CLW -39% · MERC -96% · ITP -96% |
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.4 |
| Rev LTM | 8,230 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,219 |
| FCF LTM | 1,023 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 304 |
| CFO LTM | 2,740 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,856 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 36.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 57.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 84.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 100.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 358 | 312 | 321 | 351 | 424 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 261 | 31 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 166 | 127 | 107 | 75 | 66 |
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 786 | 470 | 427 | 426 | 490 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 149 | 22 |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 95 | 68 |
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 64 | 54 |
| Corporate and Other | -37 | -36 |
| Total | 271 | 109 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 54 | 43 | 29 | 29 | 33 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 22 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Corporate and Other | -41 | -36 | -45 | -32 | -27 |
| Caraiba (Brazil) | -103 | 87 | 119 | 206 | 46 |
| Total | -68 | 94 | 103 | 203 | 52 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caraiba (Brazil) | 1,098 | 883 | 963 | 735 | 564 |
| Tucuma (Brazil) | 568 | 417 | 317 | 91 | 24 |
| Xavantina (Brazil) | 210 | 98 | 120 | 125 | 82 |
| Corporate and Other | 48 | 59 | 111 | 236 | 20 |
| Total | 1,924 | 1,458 | 1,512 | 1,188 | 690 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $34.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/21/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $30.08 | $28.84 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 16.0% | 21.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.8% | 61.9% |
| Downside Capture | 222.55 | 255.68 |
| Upside Capture | 320.13 | 302.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.5% | 49.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.09 | 2.74 | 3.09 | 2.74 | 2.31 | 1.59 |
| Up Beta | 1.61 | 3.06 | 1.97 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| Down Beta | 1.53 | 2.65 | 4.19 | 3.29 | 2.24 | 1.73 |
| Up Capture | 480% | 451% | 456% | 411% | 881% | 692% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 61 | 139 | 374 |
| Down Capture | -134% | 113% | 230% | 225% | 163% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 32 | 66 | 112 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ERO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERO | 138.6% | 61.8% | 1.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 16.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 51.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 59.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.8% | 20.3% | 1.67 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 4.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.8% | -0.63 | 33.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ERO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERO | 14.8% | 55.8% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.21 | 53.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 43.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 41.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 28.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 29.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.2% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 24.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ERO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERO | 0.9% | 57.2% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.0% | 20.7% | 0.43 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 45.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 38.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 33.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 33.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 27.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/30/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/30/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 6-K |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Copper Resources |
| International Copper Association |
| Copper Investing News |
| Kitco Copper |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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