What’s Behind The Surge In Walt Disney Stock Last Week?

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Walt Disney stock (NYSE: DIS) is up 4% in just the last one week, outperforming the S&P 500 which increased 2% during this period. Though the stock has moved in line with the market in the last ten days and underperformed over the last one month, in the last five days it has managed to surpass market gains. The recent rise in DIS stock was driven by the company’s decision to offer its Disney + streaming service with a special discount of $1.99 for the first month from now until Nov. 14 as part of a promotional effort leading up to its Disney+ Day investor event. The membership reverts to $7.99 after the first month. Disney is also teaming up with AMC Entertainment whereby for $5, moviegoers at more than 200 AMC theaters can catch one of four daily surprise screenings of popular Disney films and a short film. That promotion runs November 12th-14th. Additionally, with Disney+ gradually narrowing is subscriber gap with Netflix, the market is enthused before the announcement of the Q3 2021 numbers.

Now, is DIS stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 65% chance of a rise in DIS stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on DIS Stock Chance of Rise. Additionally, to see how Disney stands in comparison to its peers, check our analysis on Walt Disney vs Cedar Fair.

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Twenty-One Day: DIS 0.1%, vs. S&P500 7.1%; Underperformed market

(62% likelihood event; 65% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • DIS stock increased only marginally by 0.1% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 7.1%
  • A change of 0.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 62% likelihood event, which has occurred 1551 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1551 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 1007 occasions
  • This points to a 65% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: DIS 2.8%, vs. S&P500 2.9%; in line with the market

(24% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • DIS stock increased 2.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.9%
  • A change of 2.8% or more over ten trading days is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 606 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 606 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 350 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: DIS 3.9%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

  • DIS stock increased 3.9% over a five-day trading period ending 11/08/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.9%
  • A change of 3.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 224 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 224 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 116 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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