Deckers Outdoor Stock To $120?
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock has fallen > 20% in less than a month, from $103 on 21st Oct, 2025 to about $81 now. What comes next? We believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering the history of recovery post-dips and our current “attractive” opinion of the stock (read Buy or Sell Deckers Outdoor Stock). DECK’s FY25 revenue grew 16% with EPS up 30% – thanks to HOKA and UGG momentum. With a gross margin of nearly 60%, zero debt, and strong cash flow, the company is a cash-generating machine. Yet, it trades at only ~12–13× forward earnings, well below peers.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. It is no surprise that DECK stock passes basic quality checks. In addition, historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 58%, with the median peak return reaching 74%. We define a sharp dip as a stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into the details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.3% |
| 3M | 3.8% |
| 6M | 32.5% |
| 12M | 58.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
DECK had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 74% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 196 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -31% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | DECK Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | DECK | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 58% | 74% | -31% | 196 | ||||
| 2242025 | -32% | 1% | -41% | 3% | -43% | 2 | ||
| 3162020 | -42% | -25% | 204% | 208% | -18% | 364 | ||
| 10262012 | -40% | -3% | 128% | 137% | -3% | 364 | ||
| 3302012 | -30% | 4% | -12% | 10% | -55% | 27 | ||
Deckers Outdoor Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Why these checks? Because revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 15.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 16.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 18.9% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 374.3 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 502.9 |
Not sure if you can take a call on DECK stock? Consider the portfolio approach
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