Would You Still Hold Dillard’s Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
Dillard’s (DDS) stock is down 9.7% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around slowing consumer spending and elevated valuation, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Dillard’s stands today.
- Size: Dillard’s is a $9.6 Bil company with $6.6 Bil in revenue currently trading at $612.69.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -1.1% and operating margin of 10.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.06 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.31
- Valuation: Dillard’s stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 16.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 12.7
- Has returned (median) 76.5% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See DDS Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell DDS Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is DDS stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose DDS stock falls another 20-30% to $429 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- DDS stock fell 51.8% from a high of $410.15 on 23 November 2021 to $197.60 on 14 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 February 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $730.73 on 10 December 2025 , and currently trades at $612.69
| DDS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -51.8% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 207 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- DDS stock fell 69.4% from a high of $73.48 on 1 January 2020 to $22.50 on 22 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 January 2021
| DDS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -69.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 274 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- DDS stock fell 43.6% from a high of $97.51 on 21 June 2018 to $54.95 on 26 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 January 2021
| DDS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -43.6% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 519 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- DDS stock fell 93.0% from a high of $39.90 on 21 May 2007 to $2.78 on 21 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 January 2011
| DDS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -93.0% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 784 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about DDS stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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