Up 50%, Is Intuitive Machines Stock Still A Buy?

Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) – a space company focused on lunar infrastructure and services  – jumped nearly 11% on Monday following Friday’s 38% rally, as Washington’s renewed push for lunar leadership brought critical infrastructure providers into focus. The White House has set a 2028 timeline for returning astronauts to the Moon and establishing a lasting presence soon after.

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Infrastructure For Lunar Activity

Intuitive Machines is building technology for sustained lunar activity. While launch services are outsourced to SpaceX, Intuitive Machines owns the “last mile” of lunar operations.

Its Nova-C landers deliver scientific and commercial payloads to the lunar surface. Beyond delivery, the company is developing a Lunar Data Network, providing 4G and 5G communications and GPS-like navigation for future missions. These capabilities are essential for repeatable, scalable lunar operations rather than just symbolic landings. Power is another bottleneck the company is targeting. Intuitive Machines is working on compact nuclear power systems designed to survive the Moon’s two-week-long nights, when temperatures plunge and solar power is unavailable.

The recent acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems adds another layer. It expands Intuitive Machines into full-scale satellite manufacturing, broadening its footprint into national security and defense-related space programs.

Policy Becomes a Catalyst

The recent rally is tied to a White House executive order titled “Ensuring American Space Superiority.” The policy accelerates the NASA Artemis program, mandates a human return to the Moon by 2028, and outlines plans for a permanent lunar station by 2030. This matters because Intuitive Machines is already embedded as a contractor in both lunar landing and power infrastructure. As policy shifts from exploration toward permanence, the company increasingly looks like an important partner.

Wall Street has begun to reflect this shift. KeyBanc recently issued a Buy rating with a $20 price target, describing Intuitive Machines as a “pure-play” beneficiary of renewed lunar investment. Adding to the momentum, the U.S. Senate’s appointment of Jared Isaacman – entrepreneur and SpaceX astronaut –  as NASA administrator signals a potential preference for commercially proven operators, an area where Intuitive Machines has already demonstrated real lunar execution.

Valuation: Scaling vs. Profitability

LUNR’s valuation sits at the intersection of aggressive growth and ongoing losses. Consensus estimates call for revenue of roughly $219 million in 2025, followed by a sharp increase to $919 million in 2026 as mission cadence and infrastructure contracts ramp up. At a market capitalization of approximately $2 billion, the stock trades at about 2.2x forward 2026 revenue. For an aerospace company with a nearly $1 billion backlog and expanding government relevance, this appears to be a reasonable valuation.

That said, risks remain. The company is still loss-making as it invests heavily in R&D, mission execution, and infrastructure build out. The market is implicitly betting that operating leverage gains will be seen in the near-future, as scale improves and fixed costs are absorbed.

Some near-term catalysts for the stock include the IM-3 lunar mission scheduled for 2026, progress on the NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) award, and the ramp-up of Near Space Network Services (NSNS) contracts. Together, these programs could move Intuitive Machines from sporadic mission revenue toward multi-year, services-based contracts with higher visibility and scale, helping justify the company’s valuation despite near-term losses.

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