Down 21%, Is Delta Air Lines Stock a Buy Now?
Delta Air Lines (DAL) stock has fallen by 21.5% in less than a month, from $75.15 on 6th Feb, 2026 to $59.01 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, DAL stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 32% , with median peak return reaching 43%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 5.4% |
| 3M | 9.9% |
| 6M | 14.6% |
| 12M | 31.9% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
DAL had 11 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 43% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 237 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -10% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | DAL Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | DAL | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 32% | 43% | -10% | 237 | ||||
| 3072025 | -21% | -6% | 12% | 43% | -33% | 336 | ||
| 8052024 | -23% | -5% | 43% | 83% | -5% | 183 | ||
| 10132023 | -20% | -4% | 56% | 58% | -10% | 215 | ||
| 6102022 | -21% | -9% | 18% | 15% | -20% | 237 | ||
| 3072022 | -20% | -4% | 32% | 49% | -7% | 45 | ||
| 7202020 | -23% | 2% | 55% | 99% | -5% | 260 | ||
| 2272020 | -21% | -9% | -1% | 3% | -60% | 363 | ||
| 1162019 | -22% | -5% | 34% | 36% | -1% | 189 | ||
| 2082016 | -21% | -10% | 20% | 29% | -18% | 305 | ||
| 10132014 | -22% | -6% | 56% | 64% | 0% | 101 | ||
| 7052011 | -21% | 1% | 18% | 31% | -27% | 331 | ||
Delta Air Lines Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 2.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 7.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 13.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 10.1 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 6.3 |
Not sure if you can take a call on DAL stock? Consider portfolio approach
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