How Will Coterra Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Coterra Energy (NYSE:CTRA) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $18 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.6 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Coterra Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.1%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -2.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 7/21/2025 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.9% | -3.3% | 6.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -5.1% | 2.0% | 10.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.1% | -5.6% | -3.4% |
| 2/23/2024 | -0.2% | -0.1% | 7.9% |
| 11/7/2023 | -2.1% | -0.9% | -9.8% |
| 8/7/2023 | -0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | 3.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 2/23/2023 | 3.6% | 4.6% | -1.8% |
| 11/4/2022 | 2.0% | -1.7% | -8.6% |
| 8/3/2022 | -4.5% | -1.2% | 7.8% |
| 2/24/2022 | 2.1% | 14.7% | 32.9% |
| 11/3/2021 | 3.0% | -0.4% | -4.3% |
| 7/30/2021 | 0.6% | 0.9% | -1.0% |
| 4/30/2021 | 2.5% | 4.3% | -0.6% |
| 2/5/2021 | 1.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.6% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -1.2% | -2.6% |
| Max Positive | 3.9% | 14.7% | 32.9% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -5.6% | -9.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.7% | -33.9% | 22.9% |
| 3Y History | -32.8% | -57.2% | 5.0% |
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