Can Cisco Systems Stock Extend Its Run?

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Cisco Systems Inc. stock (NASDAQ: CSCO) is up around 1.4% in the past week (five trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was down 4% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned 5.5% and 6.9%, performing better than the broader markets on both occasions. Cisco’s most recent FY ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $49.8 billion in FY ’21 to $51.6 billion in FY ’22, driven by a rise in product sales, which outweighed a drop in services revenue. Additionally, with COGS and other operating expenses rising at a slower rate, the company reported operating income of $14 billion, up from $12.8 billion for FY ’21. Due to this, the company’s net income jumped, and EPS came in higher at $2.83, compared to $2.51 in FY ’21.

Now, is Cisco stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 63% chance of a rise in CSCO stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CSCO Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Cisco (CSCO) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about CSCO revenue and comparison to peers, see Cisco (CSCO) Revenue Comparison.

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  6. Forecast Of The Day: Cisco’s Services Revenues

Twenty-One Day: CSCO 6.9%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • CSCO stock gained 6.9% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.2%
  • A change of 6.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 406 times out of 2608 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 406 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 257 occasions
  • This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CSCO 5.5%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • CSCO stock gained 5.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.2%
  • A change of 5.5% or more over ten trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 234 times out of 2608 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 234 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 158 occasions
  • This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CSCO 1.4%, vs. S&P500 -4%; Outperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

  • CSCO stock rose 1.4% over a five-day trading period ending 8/23/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 4% over this period.
  • A change of 1.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 1002 times out of 2608 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1002 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 559 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 CSCO Return 4% -26% 56%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -13% 85%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -14% 245%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/24/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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