Cisco Systems Stock Set To Rebound After Weak Performance Last Month?

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CSCO
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Cisco Systems Inc. stock (NASDAQ: CSCO) is down 8% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was roughly unchanged over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has underperformed the broader markets. However, Cisco’s most recent steady Q3 ’22 earnings saw revenue rise marginally to $12.84 billion, up from $12.8 billion in Q3 ’21. Additionally, a slower rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating income rise from $3.47 billion to $3.61 billion over this period. Due to this, EPS came in higher at $0.73 in Q3 ’22, up from around $0.68 in Q3 ’21. Despite this, the current weakness in the broader markets and expectations of weak future earnings have weighed down the stock.

Now, is Cisco stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 68% chance of a rise in Cisco stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Cisco Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company stock returns and comparison to peers, see Cisco (CSCO) Stock Return Comparison. For additional details about Cisco’s revenues and comparison to peers, see Cisco (CSCO) Revenue Comparison

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Twenty-One Day: CSCO -8%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Underperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • CSCO stock dropped 8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.2%
  • A change of -8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 183 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 183 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 125 occasions
  • This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CSCO -8.1%, vs. S&P500 3.2%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • CSCO stock lost 8.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.2%
  • A change of -8.1% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 105 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 105 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 52 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CSCO 3.9%, vs. S&P500 4%; Underperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next five days)

  • CSCO stock gained 3.9% over a five-day trading period ending 5/31/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 4% over this period.
  • A change of 3.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 225 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 225 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 132 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jun 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 CSCO Return 0% -29% 49%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -13% 85%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 1% -18% 223%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/1/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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