How Will Salesforce Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The company has $223 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $40 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.7 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Salesforce’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.4%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/3/2025 | -4.9% | -5.2% | -6.7% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.3% | -4.7% | -0.8% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.0% | -5.0% | -9.6% |
| 12/3/2024 | 11.0% | 5.2% | 0.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.7% | -4.9% | 7.0% |
| 5/29/2024 | -19.7% | -12.9% | -5.3% |
| 2/28/2024 | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 11/29/2023 | 9.4% | 8.2% | 14.2% |
| 8/30/2023 | 3.0% | 3.5% | -5.7% |
| 5/31/2023 | -4.7% | -7.9% | -5.4% |
| 3/1/2023 | 11.5% | 9.3% | 17.5% |
| 11/30/2022 | -8.3% | -18.6% | -17.3% |
| 8/24/2022 | -3.4% | -13.3% | -18.3% |
| 5/31/2022 | 9.9% | 16.8% | 3.0% |
| 3/1/2022 | 0.7% | -8.0% | 2.9% |
| 11/30/2021 | -11.7% | -6.3% | -10.4% |
| 8/25/2021 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 9.5% |
| 5/27/2021 | 5.4% | 5.2% | 8.3% |
| 2/25/2021 | -6.3% | -11.1% | -9.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -7.9% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 11.5% | 16.8% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -18.6% | -18.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -20.8% | -23.0% | -25.4% |
| 3Y History | -75.4% | -49.1% | -25.1% |
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