With Coinbase Global Stock Down 10% In A Week, How Confident Are You?
Coinbase Global (COIN) stock is down 10.1% in 5 trading days. Already own the stock or planning to buy? You might want to re-consider based on the valuation as the stock still looks expensive. Consider the following data:
- Size: Coinbase Global is a $79 Bil company with $7.0 Bil in revenue currently trading at $309.14.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 48.6% and operating margin of 27.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.06 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.41
- Valuation: Coinbase Global stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 27.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 22.2
- Has returned (median) 64.7% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See COIN Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for COIN, see Buy or Sell COIN Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and COIN drops another 20-30% to $216 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager — whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients with higher returns while taking on lower levels of risk versus the benchmark index.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: COIN provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy, offering primary financial accounts for retail users in the U.S. and internationally.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- COIN stock fell 90.9% from a high of $357.39 on 9 November 2021 to $32.53 on 28 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 June 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $419.78 on 20 July 2025 , and currently trades at $309.14
| COIN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -90.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 911 days | 464 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low COIN could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.