COIN Drops 19% In A Month, Wait For A Dip To Buy The Stock
We believe there is not much to fear in COIN stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive. Here is our multi-factor assessment.
| CONCLUSION | |
|---|---|
| What you pay: | |
| Valuation | Very High |
| What you get: | |
| Growth | Very Strong |
| Profitability | Very Strong |
| Financial Stability | Very Strong |
| Downturn Resilience | Very Weak |
| Operating Performance | Strong |
| Stock Opinion | Relatively Expensive |
But no matter how attractive, investing in a single stock carries high risk. Trefis High Quality Portfolio and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $78 Bil in market cap, Coinbase Global provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy, offering primary crypto financial accounts to retail customers in the U.S. and internationally.
[1] Valuation Looks Very High
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| COIN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Sales Ratio | 11.3 | 3.3 |
| Price-to-Earnings Ratio | 53.4 | 24.0 |
| Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio | 39.9 | 21.6 |
This table highlights how COIN is valued vs broader market. For more details see: COIN Valuation Ratios
[2] Growth Is Very Strong
- Coinbase Global has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 18.6% over the last 3 years
- Its revenues have grown 75% from $4.0 Bil to $7.0 Bil in the last 12 months
- Also, its quarterly revenues grew 24.2% to $2.0 Bil in the most recent quarter from $1.6 Bil a year ago.
| COIN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Year Average | 18.6% | 5.3% |
| Latest Twelve Months* | 75.2% | 5.2% |
| Most Recent Quarter (YoY)* | 24.2% | 6.1% |
This table highlights how COIN is growing vs broader market. For more details see: COIN Revenue Comparison
[3] Profitability Appears Very Strong
- COIN last 12 month operating income was $2.3 Bil representing operating margin of 33.0%
- With cash flow margin of 28.2%, it generated nearly $2.0 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
- For the same period, COIN generated nearly $1.5 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 21.1%
| COIN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Operating Margin | 33.0% | 18.8% |
| Current OCF Margin | 28.2% | 20.2% |
| Current Net Income Margin | 21.1% | 12.8% |
This table highlights how COIN profitability vs broader market. For more details see: COIN Operating Income Comparison
[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong
- COIN Debt was $4.3 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $78 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 5.5%
- COIN Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $10 Bil of $22 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 46.7%
| COIN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 5.5% | 20.4% |
| Current Cash-to-Assets Ratio | 46.7% | 7.0% |
[4] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak
COIN has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
2022 Inflation Shock
- COIN stock fell 90.9% from a high of $357.39 on 9 November 2021 to $32.53 on 28 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 June 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $419.78 on 20 July 2025 , and currently trades at $308.48
| COIN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -90.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 911 days | 464 days |
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read COIN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.