3 Stocks That Popped When Democrats Won: Buy Or Sell?
More on the midterms and your money: Will The Midterms Move Your Stocks?
It’s open enrollment season. Somewhere tonight a family has HealthCare.gov open on the kitchen table, comparing next year’s plans, and the numbers are worse again. When the extra Obamacare subsidies lapsed, millions saw what they pay jump and about 2.6 million fewer people had coverage by February; 2027 premiums are rising by double digits for a second year.
That’s the help Democrats promised to restore, and on November 2 we named the three stocks with the most riding on it. Democrats won both chambers the next day, and the three jumped 9% to 13% the day after. Here’s how the three did from the Nov 2 close to Wednesday’s:
| Stock (Nov 11 close) | Since Nov 2 | 12 months | Below closing high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar $32.11 | +3.6% | +116.2% | 8.8% |
| Centene $70.48 | +5.9% | +99.3% | 7.3% |
| Tenet $292.97 | +9.0% | +47.7% | 0.0% |
All three rose, Tenet most. Centene closed at $76.01 the day after the vote and has slipped back since. Over 12 months, Oscar has more than doubled and Centene is up 99%.
That 99% year is the decision this news forces. For families with seven figures invested, a 3% stake in Centene a year ago is roughly 5% to 6% of the portfolio today. Trim, hedge or hold? A Trefis partner firm can weigh it with you in a free 15-minute call.
Why Did They Move?
Because the new majority says health care comes first. Democrats aim to restore the ACA subsidies and the Medicaid money cut by the 2025 tax law early next year, and House leader Hakeem Jeffries calls the subsidies a primary goal. KFF’s Larry Levitt says any restored help could be backdated to early 2027. Tenet also reported strong results and raised its outlook on October 29, days before the vote.
But the new Congress isn’t sworn in until January 3, and President Trump can veto any bill. The real leverage may be the 2027 debt-limit vote; Bank of America sees the deadline between August and November 2027. Meanwhile this year’s sign-ups run on 2027 premiums set without the extra subsidies.
Has The Pop Priced In The Policy?
Perhaps much of it, before the vote. As we showed on November 5 (Why Centene And Tenet Stocks Jumped), these weren’t beaten-down stocks: investors may have been buying a Democratic win for months. What the price can’t know yet is the deal. Here’s how far each fell the last time the news turned:
| Stock | Last big fall | Drop |
|---|---|---|
| Centene | Jan-Mar 2026: $47.27 to $31.80 | −32.7% |
| Oscar | Oct 2025-Mar 2026: $22.47 to $10.85 | −51.7% |
| Tenet | Mar-Jun 2026: $244.80 to $161.37 | −34.1% |
All three falls ended this year: Oscar and Centene bottomed on March 30, Tenet on June 4. Over longer records the worst was deeper still: Oscar lost 94.2% from 2021 to 2022, Centene 74.1% from its 2022 peak.
What Should You Do With A Gain Like This?
- Trim back to your size band. If your target is 3% with a ceiling of 4%, and a 99% year took a stake to 6%, sell back to 3%. You keep a stake in the deal without betting the gain on it.
- Or hedge with a collar. Own Centene at $70.48, buy a June 2027 $60 put and sell a June 2027 $80 call. At Wednesday’s close (midpoint of the bid and ask), the call pays about $6.33 a share and the put costs about $4.18, leaving about $2.15 a share. Your floor is about 15% below Wednesday’s close, your cap about 14% above. It’s useful in a taxable account where selling would trigger a big tax bill.
- Skip the reactive move. Adding more after a 99% year because the vote “confirmed” the story. The vote was the easy part; the deal is the hard one.
- Watch: the lame-duck session through December, the government’s open-enrollment sign-up reports, the Medicaid work requirements due January 1, and fourth-quarter results in early 2027.
What Should You Ask Next?
Is It Time To Protect Your Gains?
Votes change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, get a second opinion on yours in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.