CMG’s 24% Decline in a Month Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is YUM a Better Deal?
Yum Brands (YUM) offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), suggesting you may be better off investing in YUM
- YUM’s quarterly revenue growth was 11.8%, vs. CMG’s 3.0%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 10.1%, ahead of CMG’s 8.6%.
- YUM leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 31.3% and 3-year average of 31.8%.
CMG founded in 1993, this company operates around 3,000 restaurants across the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Europe. YUM develops, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants under KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and The Habit Burger Grill, with over 50,000 units worldwide as of 2021.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| CMG | YUM | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 29.1 | 17.0 | YUM |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 3.0% | 11.8% | YUM |
| Last 12 Months | 8.6% | 10.1% | YUM |
| Last 3 Year Average | 12.5% | 5.3% | CMG |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 17.3% | 31.3% | YUM |
| Last 3 Year Average | 16.9% | 31.8% | YUM |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 35.3% | 29.7% | CMG |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: CMG Revenue Comparison | YUM Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: CMG Operating Income Comparison | YUM Operating Income Comparison
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
- Better Value & Growth: CMG, YUM Lead Starbucks Stock
- CMG, YUM Look Smarter Buy Than Starbucks Stock
- Why Chipotle’s Selloff May Not Be Over Yet
- Better Value & Growth: CMG, YUM Lead Starbucks Stock
- Pay Less, Gain More: CMG, YUM Top Starbucks Stock
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell YUM Stock to see if Yum Brands’s edge holds up under the hood or if Chipotle Mexican Grill still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell CMG Stock).
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| CMG Return | 66% | 26% | -21% | 65% | 32% | -29% | 154% | <=== | |
| YUM Return | 10% | 30% | -6% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 60% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 8% | 93% | ||
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| CMG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 29% | 53% | ||
| YUM Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 43% | 53% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 57% | 62% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| CMG Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -31% | -2% | -3% | -29% | -19% | ||
| YUM Max Drawdown | -44% | -7% | -23% | -8% | -3% | -8% | -15% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year till date (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read YUM Dip Buyer Analyses and CMG Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.