How Will Dollar General Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. The company has $24 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $43 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.5 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Dollar General’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 37% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 6.8%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -5.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/12/2026 | -6.1% | -12.5% | -19.7% |
| 12/4/2025 | 14.0% | 14.6% | 32.2% |
| 8/28/2025 | 0.5% | -2.5% | -8.2% |
| 6/3/2025 | 15.8% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| 3/13/2025 | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.2% |
| 12/5/2024 | 0.1% | 0.4% | -4.6% |
| 8/29/2024 | -32.1% | -35.1% | -29.5% |
| 5/30/2024 | -8.1% | -3.5% | -5.1% |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.1% | -1.3% | -6.2% |
| 12/7/2023 | -1.2% | -2.7% | 0.7% |
| 8/31/2023 | -12.2% | -21.5% | -32.9% |
| 6/1/2023 | -19.5% | -22.7% | -15.6% |
| 2/23/2023 | -3.6% | -5.1% | -10.0% |
| 12/1/2022 | -7.6% | -2.6% | -3.5% |
| 8/25/2022 | -0.6% | -4.1% | -2.4% |
| 5/26/2022 | 13.7% | 15.0% | 26.3% |
| 3/17/2022 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 17.4% |
| 12/2/2021 | -3.1% | -0.6% | 5.9% |
| 8/26/2021 | -3.8% | -5.1% | -7.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 12.3% | 17.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -4.1% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 15.8% | 16.6% | 32.2% |
| Max Negative | -32.1% | -35.1% | -32.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 37.6% | 38.6% | 34.0% |
| 3Y History | 42.8% | 33.6% | 24.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Dollar General stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Dollar General. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| DG Earnings Dates | DG | DLTR | IMKTA |
| 12/4/2025 | 14.0% | 2.6% | -1.4% |
| 8/28/2025 | 0.5% | N/A* | 9.7% |
| 6/3/2025 | 15.8% | N/A* | -0.2% |
| 12/5/2024 | 0.1% | -1.7% | N/A* |
| 8/29/2024 | -32.1% | N/A* | -1.3% |
| 5/30/2024 | -8.1% | N/A* | 0.7% |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.1% | -2.5% | N/A* |
| 12/7/2023 | -1.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 8/31/2023 | -12.2% | -1.2% | -6.4% |
| 6/1/2023 | -19.5% | -5.2% | -4.0% |
| 2/23/2023 | -3.6% | N/A* | -2.9% |
| 12/1/2022 | -7.6% | -1.7% | 3.4% |
| 8/25/2022 | -0.6% | N/A* | -3.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 13.7% | N/A* | -5.2% |
| 3/17/2022 | 4.4% | 10.9% | N/A* |
| 12/2/2021 | -3.1% | -6.8% | -1.6% |
| 8/26/2021 | -3.8% | N/A* | 3.2% |
| CORRELATION | 63.8% | 19.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after DG
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