How Will Ulta Beauty Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. The company has $23 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Ulta Beauty’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 11%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/12/2026 | -14.2% | -14.5% | -15.7% |
| 12/4/2025 | 12.7% | 11.1% | 22.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | -7.1% | -3.0% | 4.3% |
| 5/29/2025 | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
| 3/13/2025 | 13.7% | 8.4% | 14.9% |
| 12/5/2024 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | -4.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | 2.5% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.2% | -7.4% | -23.4% |
| 11/30/2023 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| 8/24/2023 | -3.7% | -1.8% | -5.8% |
| 5/25/2023 | -13.4% | -12.9% | -4.7% |
| 3/9/2023 | 0.2% | -1.2% | 1.8% |
| 12/1/2022 | -0.3% | 1.9% | -0.2% |
| 8/25/2022 | -1.9% | 1.2% | -7.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.5% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| 3/10/2022 | -2.9% | 2.1% | 5.8% |
| 12/2/2021 | -1.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% |
| 8/25/2021 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -2.4% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 15.0% | 22.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.2% | -14.5% | -23.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -30.1% | -10.8% | -6.7% |
| 3Y History | -28.7% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ulta Beauty stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ulta Beauty. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA Earnings Dates | ULTA | EL | TGT | SBH | ELF | BBWI |
| 3/12/2026 | -14.2% | N/A* | 1.0% | N/A* | N/A* | -18.4% |
| 12/4/2025 | 12.7% | N/A* | 6.4% | 7.5% | -30.7% | 21.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | -7.1% | 6.0% | -1.9% | 15.1% | 17.2% | N/A* |
| 5/29/2025 | 11.8% | 16.6% | 2.0% | -11.3% | N/A* | -14.9% |
| 3/13/2025 | 13.7% | N/A* | -10.8% | -6.5% | N/A* | -20.7% |
| 12/5/2024 | 9.0% | N/A* | 6.1% | -6.3% | 26.0% | 2.8% |
| 8/29/2024 | -4.0% | -2.5% | -3.7% | 26.1% | -20.2% | -4.0% |
| 5/30/2024 | 2.5% | -4.7% | 4.6% | 12.7% | 17.2% | N/A* |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.2% | N/A* | -2.5% | N/A* | N/A* | 0.4% |
| 11/30/2023 | 10.8% | 22.8% | 2.6% | 9.9% | 24.9% | 8.4% |
| 8/24/2023 | -3.7% | -3.8% | -3.6% | -18.4% | N/A* | -4.6% |
| 5/25/2023 | -13.4% | -5.7% | -12.6% | -4.1% | 20.5% | -2.7% |
| 3/9/2023 | 0.2% | N/A* | -4.7% | N/A* | N/A* | -12.8% |
| 12/1/2022 | -0.3% | 22.5% | 6.1% | -11.9% | 33.0% | 39.0% |
| 8/25/2022 | -1.9% | -1.5% | -4.5% | 10.7% | 13.4% | -5.6% |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.5% | -2.1% | 1.0% | -0.2% | 11.2% | -1.0% |
| 3/10/2022 | -2.9% | N/A* | -2.1% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 12/2/2021 | -1.3% | N/A* | -3.3% | -4.7% | -7.0% | 0.1% |
| 8/25/2021 | -0.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | -6.6% | 7.0% | 15.0% |
| CORRELATION | 32.0% | -32.6% | 19.0% | -20.5% | -42.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ULTA
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