How Will Comcast Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. The company has $110 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $124 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $23 Bil in operating profits and net income of $16 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Comcast’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.4%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -5.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2025 | 2.2% | -1.0% | 3.3% |
| 4/24/2025 | -3.7% | -0.8% | 0.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -11.0% | -9.2% | -4.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | 3.4% | 6.9% | 2.2% |
| 7/23/2024 | -2.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -5.8% | -5.0% | -3.8% |
| 1/25/2024 | 3.4% | 6.3% | -4.3% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.4% | -2.2% | -0.4% |
| 7/27/2023 | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 10.3% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| 1/26/2023 | 0.8% | -0.3% | -7.7% |
| 10/27/2022 | 1.5% | -1.9% | 13.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | -9.1% | -11.3% | -13.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.2% | -6.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/27/2022 | -0.9% | 3.2% | -2.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | -1.0% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| 7/29/2021 | 0.2% | -0.0% | 1.8% |
| 4/29/2021 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% |
| 1/28/2021 | 6.6% | 4.2% | 8.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 12.0% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -11.3% | -13.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -31.8% | -24.4% | -35.2% |
| 3Y History | -58.1% | -69.9% | -71.1% |
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