Comcast stock (NASDAQ: CMCSA) increased almost 20% in the last three months and is currently trading at close to $50 per share. The company’s foray into streaming with the launch of Peacock in mid-2020 also helped boost the stock price as streaming demand has been high during the pandemic. The company beat analysts’ expectations in the recently released FY2020 results, which provided a further boost to the stock price. The Peacock video-streaming reported 33 million total sign-ups. Financials in 2021 are expected to improve as gradual lifting of lockdowns will drive some recovery in the most affected segments of Comcast, like movie theaters and theme parks. The management also increased the dividend by 9% in January 2021. But will Comcast’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely?
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last 20 years, returns for CMCSA stock average close to 3% in the next three-month (63 trading days) period after experiencing a 20% rise over the previous three-month (63 trading days) period. Notably, though, the stock is likely to outperform the S&P500 over the next month, with an expected return which would be 2.5% higher compared to the S&P500.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding CMCSA stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning to test CMCSA stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF CMCSA stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, CMCSA stock moves only an average of 0.6 percent, which implies a return which is 0.1 percent lower than that of the S&P500.
More importantly, there is 52% probability of a positive return over the next 21 trading days and 49% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over 5 trading days.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of CMCSA Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Comcast stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: Comcast stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Comcast stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Comcast stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
CMCSA stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 1.4% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 0.8% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Comcast stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold Comcast stock, the expectation is over time the near term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For CMCSA stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
CMCSA’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Comcast stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.