Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) stock has declined by about 12% over the last week (five trading days) and remains down by about 5% over the last month. The sell-off follows Comcast’s mixed Q2 2022 report, which saw the company post stronger than expected earnings of about $1.01 per share, up 20% versus last year, although it saw no sequential subscriber growth in its closely watched broadband business. This is concerning to investors, as the broadband business, which saw robust growth through the Covid-19 pandemic, is seen as one of Comcast’s most lucrative segments. Moreover, the broadband business is also facing competition from 5G carriers who are making inroads into the home broadband market with their fixed-wireless Internet services. The slowing growth and mounting competition could make it more expensive for Comcast to attract additional subscribers and drive growth. Separately, Comcast’s Peacock streaming service also isn’t faring too well, with the number of subscribers paying for the service remaining essentially flat versus the last quarter at about 13 million.
However, now that CMCSA stock has seen a decline of about 5% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a rally imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly 57% chance of a rise in CMCSA stock over the next month. Out of 376 instances in the last ten years that CMCSA stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 4% or more, 215 of them resulted in CMCSA stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 215 out of 376, or about a 57% chance of a rise in CMCSA stock over the coming month, implying a positive near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Comcast Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving -12% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 38% of the occasions.
- After moving -8.3% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 66% of the occasions
- After moving -5% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 57% of the occasions.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Comcast stock has fallen 25% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can Comcast stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||9%||-13%||84%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||13%||-13%||246%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/30/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016