Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) stock has gained almost 10% over the past month (about 21 trading days) outperforming the broader S&P 500 which has remained roughly flat over the same period. Now, Comcast has seen considerable pressure over the last year as growth for its bread and butter broadband business largely stalled amid an easing of Covid-19 tailwinds and also due to competition from fixed wireless broadband services. For perspective, the stock was down almost 30% in 2022. However, investors are likely beginning to see more value in CMCSA stock, which trades at just about 10x forward earnings presently. Moreover, Comcast is poised to expand its earnings per share driven by share repurchases and margin expansion for the cable communication business via cost and efficiency improvements. The company’s sizable and stable cash flows could make it a safe haven of sorts during a recession, which appears increasingly likely. That said, what is the near-term outlook like for Comcast?
Given that CMCSA stock is up 10% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or decline in CMCSA stock over the next month. There were 101 instances in the last 10 years when Comcast (CMCSA) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 10% or more. 50 of those instances resulted in CMCSA stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 50 out of 101, or about a 50% chance of a rise in Comcast stock over the next month. See our analysis on Comcast Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving 4% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 50% of the occasions.
- After moving 11% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 58% of the occasions.
- After moving 10% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 50% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that there is a not a very high chance of a rise in CMCSA stock in the near term.
|S&P 500 Return||4%||4%||79%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||8%||8%||241%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/15/2023
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016