Can Colgate-Palmolive Stock Sustain Its Outperformance?

Colgate-Palmolive stock (NYSE: CL) is up more than 2% in the past week (five trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up a little under 2% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned -1.2%, outperforming the broader markets. Colgate’s recent FY ’21 earnings, saw revenue rising from $16.5 billion in FY ’20 to $17.4 billion in FY ’21. COGS and other operating expenses rose slower than revenue, but a $571 million goodwill impairment charge led to operating income dropping from $3.89 billion to $3.33 billion over this period. Combined with a rise in the effective tax rate, CL posted an EPS of $2.56 in FY ’21, down from $3.15. Despite this mixed FY ’21 performance and the recent volatility in the broader markets, the stock has managed to outperform the S&P.

Now, is CL stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 65% chance of a rise in CL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Colgate Palmolive (CL) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about CL operating income and comparison to peers, see Colgate Palmolive (CL) Operating Income Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: CL -5.5%, vs. S&P500 -3.8%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 65% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• CL stock lost -5.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of -3.8%
• A change of -5.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 159 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 159 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 103 occasions
• This points to a 65% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CL -1.2%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Outperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• CL stock lost -1.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.4%
• A change of -1.2% or more over ten trading days is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 734 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 734 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 419 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CL 2.4%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Outperformed market

(33% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

• CL stock rose 2.4% over a five-day trading period ending 3/3/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up around 1.7% over this period.
• A change of 2.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 33% likelihood event, which has occurred 836 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 836 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 455 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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