Century Aluminum Stock To $40?

Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has jumped 8.4% during the past day, and is currently trading at $58.07. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell CENX stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $40 may not be out of reach. We believe there are several things to fear in CENX stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Very Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $5.6 Bil in market cap, Century Aluminum provides primary aluminum products in the US and Iceland and operates a carbon anode facility in the Netherlands.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how CENX is valued vs broader market. For more details see: CENX Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Inconsistent

• Century Aluminum has seen its top line shrink at an average rate of -2.0% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 14% from $2.2 Bil to $2.5 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 0.4% to $634 Mil in the most recent quarter from $631 Mil a year ago.

This table highlights how CENX is growing vs broader market. For more details see: CENX Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• CENX last 12 month operating income was $158 Mil representing operating margin of 6.3%
• With cash flow margin of 7.3%, it generated nearly $185 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, CENX generated nearly $42 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 1.7%

This table highlights how CENX profitability vs broader market. For more details see: CENX Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• CENX Debt was $548 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $5.6 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 9.8%
• CENX Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $134 Mil of $2.3 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 5.9%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak

CENX has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• CENX stock fell 82.1% from a high of $29.49 on 4 March 2022 to $5.28 on 30 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 2 October 2025
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $54.45 on 9 March 2026 , and currently trades at $58.07

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• CENX stock fell 62.1% from a high of $8.02 on 7 January 2020 to $3.04 on 3 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 31 July 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• CENX stock fell 98.7% from a high of $79.99 on 20 May 2008 to $1.06 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read CENX Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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