Is Celanese Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
Celanese (CE) stock is down 8.8% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around missed earnings, revenue decline, and a tough demand environment, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Celanese stands today.
- Size: Celanese is a $5.5 Bil company with $9.7 Bil in revenue currently trading at $50.03.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -7.3% and operating margin of 8.8%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 2.41 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.06
- Valuation: Celanese stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -1.8 and P/EBIT multiple of -2.7
- Has returned (median) 19.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CE Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Very Weak operational performance, alongside Very Low valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell CE Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is CE stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose CE stock falls another 20-30% to $35 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- CE stock fell 49.5% from a high of $173.82 on 5 January 2022 to $87.85 on 26 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $171.86 on 31 March 2024 , and currently trades at $50.03
| CE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -49.5% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CE stock fell 52.0% from a high of $123.12 on 1 January 2020 to $59.12 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 November 2020
| CE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -52.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 236 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CE stock fell 28.5% from a high of $118.11 on 31 July 2018 to $84.41 on 17 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 September 2019
| CE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -28.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 266 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CE stock fell 85.0% from a high of $50.00 on 23 June 2008 to $7.52 on 3 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 May 2011
| CE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -85.0% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 798 days | 1,480 days |
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