How Will Carnival Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, December 18, 2025. The company has $37 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $26 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Carnival’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 5.4%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -4.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/29/2025 | -4.0% | -6.7% | -3.9% |
| 6/24/2025 | 6.9% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| 3/21/2025 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -18.7% |
| 12/20/2024 | 6.4% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 9/30/2024 | -0.3% | -2.8% | 18.2% |
| 6/25/2024 | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% |
| 3/27/2024 | 0.9% | -9.9% | -10.9% |
| 12/21/2023 | 6.2% | 3.3% | -10.1% |
| 9/29/2023 | -5.0% | -7.9% | -22.9% |
| 6/26/2023 | -7.6% | 19.2% | 10.4% |
| 3/27/2023 | -4.8% | 10.0% | -2.9% |
| 12/21/2022 | 4.7% | -5.3% | 32.3% |
| 9/30/2022 | -23.3% | -23.8% | -2.4% |
| 6/24/2022 | 12.4% | -10.4% | -4.9% |
| 3/22/2022 | -0.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| 12/20/2021 | 3.4% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| 9/24/2021 | 3.0% | 1.3% | -9.7% |
| 6/24/2021 | -2.5% | -6.4% | -22.0% |
| 4/7/2021 | 1.4% | -2.7% | -7.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 9.0% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -6.4% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 12.4% | 19.2% | 32.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -23.8% | -22.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -26.5% | -40.8% | -33.3% |
| 3Y History | -43.5% | 0.2% | -22.0% |
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