McDonald’s Stock Pays Out $79 Bil – Investors Take Note

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MCD: McDonald's logo
MCD
McDonald's

In the last decade, McDonald’s (MCD) stock has returned a notable $79 Bil back to its shareholders through cold, hard cash via dividends and buybacks. Let’s look at some numbers and compare how this payout power stacks up against the market’s biggest capital-return machines.

As it turns out, MCD stock has returned the 26th highest amount to shareholders in history.

  MCD S&P Median
Dividends $39 Bil $4.5 Bil
Share Repurchase $41 Bil $5.6 Bil
Total Returned $79 Bil $9.4 Bil
Total Returned as % of Current Market Cap 36.4% 24.5%

Why should you care? Because dividends and share repurchases represent direct, tangible returns of capital to shareholders. They also signal management’s confidence in the company’s financial health and ability to generate sustainable cash flows. And there are more stocks like that. Here is a list of the top 10 companies ranked by total capital returned to shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases.

Top 10 Stocks By Total Shareholder Return

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  Total Money Returned As % Of Current Market Cap via Dividends via Share Repurchases
AAPL $847 Bil 22.9% $141 Bil $706 Bil
MSFT $368 Bil 11.0% $169 Bil $200 Bil
GOOGL $357 Bil 8.9% $15 Bil $342 Bil
XOM $218 Bil 38.0% $146 Bil $72 Bil
WFC $212 Bil 75.5% $58 Bil $153 Bil
META $183 Bil 11.2% $9.1 Bil $174 Bil
JPM $181 Bil 21.6% $0.0 $181 Bil
JNJ $159 Bil 30.2% $105 Bil $54 Bil
ORCL $158 Bil 31.0% $35 Bil $123 Bil
CVX $157 Bil 48.5% $99 Bil $58 Bil

For full ranking, visit Buybacks & Dividends Ranking

What do you notice here? The total capital returned to shareholders as a % of the current market cap appears inversely proportional to growth prospects for reinvestments. Stocks like Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are growing much faster, in a more predictable way, compared to the others, but they have returned a much lower fraction of their market cap to shareholders.

That’s the flip side to high capital returns. Sure, they are attractive, but you have to ask yourself the question: Am I sacrificing growth and sound fundamentals? With that in mind, let’s look at some numbers for MCD. (see Buy or Sell McDonald’s Stock for more details)

McDonald’s Fundamentals

  • Revenue Growth: 1.2% LTM and 4.2% last 3-year average.
  • Cash Generation: Nearly 28.1% free cash flow margin and 46.1% operating margin LTM.
  • Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for MCD was 1.2%.
  • Valuation: McDonald’s stock trades at a P/E multiple of 25.9

  MCD S&P Median
Sector Consumer Discretionary
Industry Restaurants
PE Ratio 25.9 24.8

   
LTM* Revenue Growth 1.2% 6.4%
3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth 4.2% 5.7%
Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y 1.2% 0.2%

   
LTM* Operating Margin 46.1% 18.8%
3Y Average Operating Margin 45.9% 18.4%
LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin 28.1% 13.5%

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

The table gives good overview of what you get from MCD stock, but what about the risk?

MCD Historical Risk

McDonald’s isn’t immune to big drops either. It took a 47% hit in the Dot-Com crash, stumbled 36% during the Covid pandemic, and fell over 21% in the Global Financial Crisis. Even the smaller shocks, like the 2018 correction and the recent inflation worries, led to pullbacks around 16-17%. It’s solid, but these numbers show that no stock is completely safe when things go south.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read MCD Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.