McCormick Stock Testing Price Floor – Buy Now?
McCormick (MKC) stock should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($58.14 – $64.26), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, McCormick stock received buying interest at this level 8 times and subsequently went on to generate 20.1% in average peak returns.
| Peak Return | Days to Peak Return | |
|---|---|---|
| 3/26/2019 | 20.6% | 303 |
| 3/30/2020 | 50.7% | 752 |
| 9/30/2022 | 22.3% | 98 |
| 1/30/2023 | 26.2% | 144 |
| 12/4/2023 | 4.8% | 29 |
| 1/23/2024 | 4.8% | 59 |
| 3/22/2024 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 5/31/2024 | 19.3% | 276 |
Yet, a support zone alone isn’t enough; rebounds are more likely when fundamentals, sentiment, and market conditions line up. How does that look for MKC?
Unlikely: 2026 outlook, cost pressure, weak organic growth
McCormick’s FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.05-$3.13 missed consensus by 3-5%, triggering a 6%+ stock drop. Organic sales growth is projected at a modest 1-3%, with total sales growth heavily reliant on the Mexico acquisition. Persistent cost inflation, a higher tax rate, and an incremental $50 million tariff impact for 2026 will compress margins, despite expected recovery from 2025 levels. While valuation metrics and dividend history offer some long-term appeal, near-term headwinds overshadow these, making a quick rebound improbable.
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How Do MKC Financials Look Right Now?
- Revenue Growth: 1.7% LTM and 2.5% last 3-year average.
- Cash Generation: Nearly 10.8% free cash flow margin and 16.0% operating margin LTM.
- Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for MKC was 1.1%.
- Valuation: MKC stock trades at a PE multiple of 20.8
| MKC | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Staples | – |
| Industry | Packaged Foods & Meats | – |
| PE Ratio | 20.8 | 24.8 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 1.7% | 6.4% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 2.5% | 5.7% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | 1.1% | 0.2% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 10.8% | 13.5% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months | For more details on MKC fundamentals, read Buy or Sell MKC Stock.
And What If The Support Breaks?
MKC isn’t immune to tough market swings. It fell nearly 30% in the Dot-Com bubble and dropped about 31% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction wasn’t gentle either, with a dip over 20%. Covid pushed it down about 34%, and the inflation shock in 2022 hit hardest, with a 41% plunge. So even with solid fundamentals, MKC can take a hit when the market turns ugly. Risk is real, no matter the name.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are in good shape – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read MKC Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
Still not sure about MKC stock? Consider the portfolio approach.
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