Carnival Stock To $17?

Carnival (CCL) stock has fallen 6.8% during the past day, and is currently trading at $24.76. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell CCL stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $17 may not be out of reach. We believe there is a near-equal mix of good and bad in CCL stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Low valuation, this makes the stock look Risky.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $33 Bil in market cap, Carnival operates as a leisure travel company offering cruise experiences to around 700 ports worldwide through multiple renowned cruise brands.

[1] Valuation Looks Low

This table highlights how CCL is valued vs broader market. For more details see: CCL Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Moderate

• Carnival has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 45.9% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 7.1% from $24 Bil to $26 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 3.3% to $8.2 Bil in the most recent quarter from $7.9 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how CCL is growing vs broader market. For more details see: CCL Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• CCL last 12 month operating income was $4.3 Bil representing operating margin of 16.4%
• With cash flow margin of 21.4%, it generated nearly $5.6 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, CCL generated nearly $2.6 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 10.1%

This table highlights how CCL profitability vs broader market. For more details see: CCL Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Weak

• CCL Debt was $28 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $33 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 85.9%
• CCL Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $1.8 Bil of $51 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 3.5%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak

CCL has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• CCL stock fell 79.6% from a high of $31.31 on 2 June 2021 to $6.38 on 10 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 August 2025
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $32.49 on 28 August 2025 , and currently trades at $24.76

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• CCL stock fell 84.6% from a high of $51.90 on 17 January 2020 to $7.97 on 2 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• CCL stock fell 70.7% from a high of $51.33 on 9 October 2007 to $15.02 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 July 2015

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read CCL Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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