CCL Lost 9.5% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait?
Carnival (CCL) stock is down 9.5% in 21 trading days. History of recovery post-dips is not on your side and there is fundamental risk – specific to balance sheet and downturn resilience. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $39 Bil company with $26 Bil in revenue currently trading at $29.40.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 7.1% and operating margin of 16.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.72 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of 14.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 9.4
- Has returned (median) 9.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CCL Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for CCL, see Buy or Sell CCL Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and CCL drops another 20-30% to $21 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Carnival (CCL) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: CCL operates as a leisure travel company offering cruises to around 700 ports worldwide through multiple renowned cruise line brands.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- CCL stock fell 79.6% from a high of $31.31 on 2 June 2021 to $6.38 on 10 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 August 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $32.49 on 28 August 2025 , and currently trades at $29.40
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1051 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CCL stock fell 84.6% from a high of $51.90 on 17 January 2020 to $7.97 on 2 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -84.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CCL stock fell 44.2% from a high of $71.94 on 29 January 2018 to $40.13 on 8 October 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -44.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CCL stock fell 70.7% from a high of $51.33 on 9 October 2007 to $15.02 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 July 2015
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2426 days | 1480 days |
Worried that CCL could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.