How Caterpillar Stock Gained 70%
Caterpillar (CAT)’s stock skyrocketed 73%, fueled by a nearly doubling P/E multiple, even as revenue slipped and margins shrank. Behind this rollercoaster: missed earnings, tariff pressures, and a surprising Q3 rebound—signals that challenge the surface numbers. Let’s unpack the story beneath the surge.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 3092025 | 12042025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 346.4 | 599.1 | 73.0% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64,809.0 | 63,139.0 | -2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.7% | 14.9% | -10.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.4 | 29.8 | 93.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 479.8 | 469.7 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 72.9% |
So what is happening here? The stock surged 73%, driven by a 94% jump in P/E multiple, despite revenue dipping 2.6% and net margin falling 10%. Let’s explore the events behind these shifts next.
Here Is Why Caterpillar Stock Moved
- Caterpillar Stock Capital Return Hits $57 Bil
- Caterpillar Stock To $404?
- GATX or Caterpillar: Which Stock Has More Upside?
- A Decade of Rewards: Caterpillar Stock Returns $57 Bil to Investors
- CAT Leaps 16% In One Month, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock
- CAT Up 16% in One Month: Is It Outperforming Its Rivals?
- Q1 Earnings Miss: Q1 2025 sales and revenues decreased 10%, with adjusted EPS down 24% from lower volume and pricing.
- Q2 EPS Miss & Costs: Q2 2025 adjusted EPS missed forecasts, profit declined due to unfavorable pricing and costs.
- Rising Tariff Impact: Increased 2025 tariff impact estimated at $1.5B-$1.8B, affecting operating profit margins.
- Q3 Revenue Beat: Q3 2025 sales and revenues rose 10% to a record $17.6B, beating estimates, driven by volume.
- Weak Demand Warning: Early 2025 warning of sales drop due to weak equipment demand, high borrowing costs, and inflation.
Our Current Assesment Of CAT Stock
Opinion: We currently find CAT stock unattractive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell CAT Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A solid way to gauge risk is by checking how much Caterpillar fell in major market selloffs. It dropped about 52% in the Dot-Com Bubble and even deeper, 73%, during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction took it down 33%, and the Covid selloff saw a 39% dip. The recent inflation shock trimmed around 32%. Even with its strong fundamentals, CAT hasn’t been immune to big drawdowns when the market turns south.
CAT stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.