Caterpillar Stock Capital Return Hits $57 Bil

-26.56%
Downside
599
Market
440
Trefis
CAT: Caterpillar logo
CAT
Caterpillar

In the last decade, Caterpillar (CAT) stock has returned a notable $57 Bil back to its shareholders through cold, hard cash via dividends and buybacks. Let’s look at some numbers and compare how this payout power stacks up against the market’s biggest capital-return machines.

As it turns out, CAT stock has returned the 49th highest amount to shareholders in history.

  CAT S&P Median
Dividends $22 Bil $4.5 Bil
Share Repurchase $35 Bil $5.7 Bil
Total Returned $57 Bil $9.4 Bil
Total Returned as % of Current Market Cap 20.2% 25.8%

Why should you care? Because dividends and share repurchases represent direct, tangible returns of capital to shareholders. They also signal management’s confidence in the company’s financial health and ability to generate sustainable cash flows. And there are more stocks like that. Here is a list of the top 10 companies ranked by total capital returned to shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases.

Top 10 Stocks By Total Shareholder Return

Relevant Articles
  1. How Caterpillar Stock Gained 70%
  2. Caterpillar Stock To $404?
  3. GATX or Caterpillar: Which Stock Has More Upside?
  4. A Decade of Rewards: Caterpillar Stock Returns $57 Bil to Investors
  5. CAT Leaps 16% In One Month, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock
  6. CAT Up 16% in One Month: Is It Outperforming Its Rivals?

  Total Money Returned As % Of Current Market Cap via Dividends via Share Repurchases
AAPL $847 Bil 20.3% $141 Bil $706 Bil
MSFT $368 Bil 10.3% $169 Bil $200 Bil
GOOGL $357 Bil 9.3% $15 Bil $342 Bil
XOM $212 Bil 41.8% $145 Bil $67 Bil
WFC $212 Bil 73.7% $58 Bil $153 Bil
META $183 Bil 11.0% $9.1 Bil $174 Bil
JPM $181 Bil 20.7% $0.0 $181 Bil
ORCL $161 Bil 26.5% $34 Bil $126 Bil
CVX $157 Bil 53.0% $99 Bil $58 Bil
JNJ $157 Bil 32.1% $104 Bil $52 Bil

For full ranking, visit Buybacks & Dividends Ranking

What do you notice here? The total capital returned to shareholders as a % of the current market cap appears inversely proportional to growth prospects for reinvestments. Stocks like Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are growing much faster, in a more predictable way, compared to the others, but they have returned a much lower fraction of their market cap to shareholders.

That’s the flip side to high capital returns. Sure, they are attractive, but you have to ask yourself the question: Am I sacrificing growth and sound fundamentals? With that in mind, let’s look at some numbers for CAT. (see Buy or Sell Caterpillar Stock for more details)

Caterpillar Fundamentals

  • Revenue Growth: -4.9% LTM and 5.8% last 3-year average.
  • Cash Generation: Nearly 12.3% free cash flow margin and 18.2% operating margin LTM.
  • Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for CAT was -4.9%.
  • Valuation: Caterpillar stock trades at a P/E multiple of 19.3

  CAT S&P Median
Sector Industrials
Industry Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
PE Ratio 19.3 23.5

   
LTM* Revenue Growth -4.9% 6.1%
3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth 5.8% 5.4%
Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y -4.9% 0.2%

   
LTM* Operating Margin 18.2% 18.8%
3Y Average Operating Margin 18.8% 18.2%
LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin 12.3% 13.5%

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

The table gives good overview of what you get from CAT stock, but what about the risk?

CAT Historical Risk

Caterpillar isn’t immune to big sell-offs. It dropped over 52% in the Dot-Com crash and more than 73% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction took it down about 33%, while the Covid slump shaved nearly 39% off its peak. Even the recent inflation shock caused a drop of around 32%. Solid fundamentals matter, but when turmoil hits, CAT can still take a serious hit.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read CAT Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.