BX Stock Falls -14% In A 9-day Losing Spree On Weaker Guidance & PT Cuts
Blackstone (BX) – a firm managing alternative assets including real estate and private equity – hit a 9-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -14%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $27 Bil over the last 9 days and currently stands at $169 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 13.1% compared to 1.1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Disappointing 2026 Forward Guidance
- Guidance viewed as ‘in-line to slightly worse’ than expected
- Concerns over rising expenses and margin pressure
- Impact: Negative shift in investor sentiment, Stock fell 2.6% on the day of earnings
[2] Multiple Analyst Price Target Reductions & Political Risk
- Piper Sandler, BMO, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan lowered price targets
- Proposed ban on institutional buying of single-family homes heightened concerns
- Impact: Sustained institutional selling, Extended losing streak to 8 consecutive sessions by Feb 2
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is a near-equal mix of good and bad in BX stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Hence, together with its Very High valuation, this makes the stock look Risky (For details, see Buy or Sell BX).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -14% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for BX stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | BX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -5.2% | -0.8% |
| 9D (Current Streak) | -14.2% | 0.6% |
| 1M (21D) | -15.7% | 0.9% |
| 3M (63D) | -8.7% | 1.1% |
| YTD 2026 | -13.1% | 1.1% |
| 2025 | -7.8% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 35.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 82.7% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: BX Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 79 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 57 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 29 | 23 |
| 4D | 31 | 9 |
| 5D | 15 | 7 |
| 6D | 1 | 11 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 7 |
| Total >=3 D | 79 | 57 |
Key Financials for Blackstone (BX)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $7.0 Bil | $10.9 Bil |
| EBT | $3.0 Bil | $6.5 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.4 Bil | $2.8 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $3.2 Bil | $2.7 Bil |
| EBT | $1.9 Bil | $1.4 Bil |
| Net Income | $764.2 Mil | $624.9 Mil |
The losing streak BX stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.