Freshpet Stock To $88?
Freshpet (FRPT) stock has fallen by 21.1% in less than a month, from $85.50 on 4th Mar, 2026 to $67.42 now. What comes next? We believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Read Buy or Sell Freshpet Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, FRPT stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 9.5%, with median peak returns reaching 57%. We define a sharp dip as a stock going down 20% or more in less than a 30-day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -1.6% |
| 3M | 14.8% |
| 6M | 30.5% |
| 12M | 9.5% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
FRPT had 16 events since 11/7/2014 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 57% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 216 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -23% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | FRPT Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | FRPT | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 10% | 57% | -23% | 216 | ||||
| 8252025 | -22% | 3% | 20% | 52% | -14% | 191 | ||
| 7072025 | -20% | 5% | -1% | 26% | -29% | 240 | ||
| 2202025 | -27% | 3% | -24% | 1% | -55% | 4 | ||
| 9252023 | -20% | -3% | 121% | 124% | -13% | 361 | ||
| 12192022 | -22% | 1% | 59% | 63% | -3% | 365 | ||
| 9082022 | -22% | -0% | 86% | 112% | 0% | 333 | ||
| 5042022 | -21% | -5% | -14% | 0% | -52% | 0 | ||
| 11242021 | -23% | 8% | -39% | 4% | -64% | 146 | ||
| 8102021 | -20% | 4% | -65% | 18% | -66% | 77 | ||
| 3122020 | -21% | -24% | 197% | 229% | -17% | 337 | ||
| 8062019 | -23% | -2% | 181% | 185% | 0% | 364 | ||
| 12242018 | -23% | -16% | 106% | 106% | 0% | 365 | ||
| 1272016 | -20% | -6% | 81% | 84% | -4% | 363 | ||
| 8072015 | -24% | -1% | -34% | 0% | -64% | 0 | ||
| 5212015 | -22% | 2% | -55% | 8% | -70% | 35 | ||
| 12222014 | -25% | 3% | -41% | 77% | -58% | 108 | ||
Freshpet Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 13.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 23.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 14.6% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 6.0 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 19.7 |
Not sure if you can take a call on FRPT stock? Consider portfolio approach
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Individual stocks are unpredictable. A smart portfolio helps you invest, limits downside shocks, and provides upside exposure.
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