How Will BWX Technologies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
BWX Technologies (NYSE:BWXT) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $20 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $322 Mil in operating profits and net income of $294 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Quiz time: Over the last 5 years, which index do you think the Trefis High Quality Portfolio outperformed — the S&P 500, the S&P 1500 Equal Weighted, or both? The answer might surprise you. See how our advisory framework helps stack the odds in your favor.
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BWX Technologies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -0.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2025 | 17.8% | 15.3% | 4.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | -3.5% | -4.4% | 15.3% |
| 2/24/2025 | 4.2% | 1.6% | 5.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -2.3% | 5.7% | 9.2% |
| 8/5/2024 | 0.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | 12.9% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.1% | 1.9% | 6.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% |
| 5/8/2023 | 2.4% | 3.0% | -1.0% |
| 2/23/2023 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| 11/7/2022 | -0.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% |
| 8/8/2022 | -0.6% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
| 5/9/2022 | 0.6% | 3.1% | 8.4% |
| 2/22/2022 | 5.5% | 26.3% | 28.5% |
| 11/1/2021 | -7.6% | -7.2% | -18.4% |
| 8/2/2021 | -3.1% | -4.8% | 1.3% |
| 5/3/2021 | -0.1% | -2.1% | -5.7% |
| 2/22/2021 | -0.5% | 3.9% | 10.1% |
| 11/2/2020 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 3.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -4.4% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 26.3% | 28.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -7.2% | -18.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 5.2% | -22.0% | -25.2% |
| 3Y History | -27.6% | -77.7% | -72.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of BWX Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before BWX Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT Earnings Dates | BWXT | AYI | BC |
| 8/4/2025 | 17.8% | N/A* | -1.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -3.5% | N/A* | -2.6% |
| 2/24/2025 | 4.2% | N/A* | -9.3% |
| 11/4/2024 | -2.3% | N/A* | 0.8% |
| 8/5/2024 | 0.9% | N/A* | -4.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | 12.9% | N/A* | 2.8% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.1% | -9.3% | 3.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.6% | N/A* | -3.6% |
| 5/8/2023 | 2.4% | N/A* | -3.0% |
| 2/23/2023 | 2.6% | N/A* | -2.4% |
| 11/7/2022 | -0.9% | N/A* | -2.5% |
| 8/8/2022 | -0.6% | N/A* | 3.7% |
| 5/9/2022 | 0.6% | N/A* | 3.1% |
| 2/22/2022 | 5.5% | N/A* | 8.0% |
| 11/1/2021 | -7.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% |
| 8/2/2021 | -3.1% | N/A* | 2.3% |
| 5/3/2021 | -0.1% | N/A* | 4.9% |
| 2/22/2021 | -0.5% | N/A* | 2.7% |
| CORRELATION | -100.0% | -32.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after BWXT
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