Burlington Stores Stock To $175?

Burlington Stores (BURL) stock has fallen 12% during the past day, and is currently trading at $249.65. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell BURL stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $175 may not be out of reach. We believe there are a few things to fear in BURL stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $16 Bil in market cap, Burlington Stores operates as a retailer offering fashion-focused branded apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, and gifts through over 840 stores across the United States.

[1] Valuation Looks Moderate

This table highlights how BURL is valued vs broader market. For more details see: BURL Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Moderate

• Burlington Stores has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 7.7% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 7.6% from $10 Bil to $11 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 9.7% to $2.7 Bil in the most recent quarter from $2.5 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how BURL is growing vs broader market. For more details see: BURL Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• BURL last 12 month operating income was $764 Mil representing operating margin of 6.9%
• With cash flow margin of 7.3%, it generated nearly $804 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, BURL generated nearly $546 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 5.0%

This table highlights how BURL profitability vs broader market. For more details see: BURL Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• BURL Debt was $5.8 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $16 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 37.1%
• BURL Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $748 Mil of $9.3 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 8.0%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak

BURL has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• BURL stock fell 68.9% from a high of $352.64 on 11 August 2021 to $109.78 on 29 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
• The highest the stock has reached since then is $301.35 on 4 September 2025 , and currently trades at $249.65

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• BURL stock fell 51.4% from a high of $248.09 on 19 February 2020 to $120.45 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 December 2020

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read BURL Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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