Burlington Stores Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
Burlington Stores (BURL) stock is down 12.2% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around weak comparable sales and warm weather impacting store traffic, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Burlington Stores stands today.
- Size: Burlington Stores is a $16 Bil company with $11 Bil in revenue currently trading at $249.65.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 7.6% and operating margin of 6.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.37 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: Burlington Stores stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 28.8 and P/EBIT multiple of 19.8
- Has returned (median) 75% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See BURL Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell BURL Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is BURL stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose BURL stock falls another 20-30% to $175 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- BURL stock fell 68.9% from a high of $352.64 on 11 August 2021 to $109.78 on 29 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $301.35 on 4 September 2025 , and currently trades at $249.65
| BURL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- BURL stock fell 51.4% from a high of $248.09 on 19 February 2020 to $120.45 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 December 2020
| BURL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -51.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 280 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- BURL stock fell 22.8% from a high of $103.96 on 10 May 2017 to $80.27 on 15 August 2017 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 November 2017
| BURL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -22.8% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 94 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about BURL stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.