Burlington Stores Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
Burlington Stores (BURL) stock is down 12.2% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around weak comparable sales and warm weather impacting store traffic, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Burlington Stores stands today.
- Size: Burlington Stores is a $16 Bil company with $11 Bil in revenue currently trading at $249.65.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 7.6% and operating margin of 6.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.37 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: Burlington Stores stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 28.8 and P/EBIT multiple of 19.8
- Has returned (median) 75% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See BURL Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell BURL Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is BURL stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose BURL stock falls another 20-30% to $175 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- BURL stock fell 68.9% from a high of $352.64 on 11 August 2021 to $109.78 on 29 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $301.35 on 4 September 2025 , and currently trades at $249.65
| BURL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- BURL stock fell 51.4% from a high of $248.09 on 19 February 2020 to $120.45 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 December 2020
| BURL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -51.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 280 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- BURL stock fell 22.8% from a high of $103.96 on 10 May 2017 to $80.27 on 15 August 2017 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 November 2017
| BURL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -22.8% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 94 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about BURL stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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